{"id":364202,"date":"2025-08-22T12:12:04","date_gmt":"2025-08-22T16:12:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=364202"},"modified":"2025-08-22T12:12:05","modified_gmt":"2025-08-22T16:12:05","slug":"blue-jays-vs-marlins-best-bets-august-22-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/blue-jays-vs-marlins-best-bets-august-22-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Blue Jays vs. Marlins best bets Aug. 22: Ride with Springer, look for Bieber to excel in season debut"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Shane Bieber makes his season debut on Friday night for the Toronto Blue Jays in their series opener against the Miami Marlins.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The pregame narrative:<\/strong> Bieber, who the Jays acquired at the trade deadline, hasn’t pitched since April 2024 as he recovered from Tommy John surgery. But he’s turned in some very encouraging rehab outings this month, and his Jays are favoured to win in South Florida.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Check out my Blue Jays best bets vs. the Marlins for Aug. 22, featuring Bieber and George Springer<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Blue Jays best bets vs. Marlins<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Best bet: Bieber over 16.5 outs (-115)<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

It’s been nearly a year and a half since Bieber last pitched in an MLB game, so it’s not easy to get a feel for what Friday will bring.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One thing I do know is that he’s absolutely built up enough to blow by this line.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here’s how Bieber’s three rehab starts with Triple-A Buffalo went:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  • Aug. 3:<\/strong> 5.0 IP (15 outs) on 62 pitches<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Aug. 9:<\/strong> 5.2 IP (17 outs) on 78 pitches<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Aug. 15:<\/strong> 7.0 IP (21 outs) on 90 pitches<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

    Notice the upward trajectory? Stamina shouldn’t be an issue here.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    So it’ll likely come down to effectiveness, and against a subpar Marlins lineup, I’ll take my chances. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Miami ranks 20th in wRC+ (96) this season and 18th in runs per game (4.32).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The Marlins also have the seventh-lowest strikeout rate and the eighth-lowest walk rate, so Bieber should be able to stack quick outs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Coming off an off-day, there’s certainly a risk that Toronto turns to its rested bullpen early. But it won’t be because Bieber is ill-conditioned to work into the sixth \u2014 and I don’t think Miami has the firepower to chase him, either.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Key stat:<\/strong> From 2022-24, Bieber averaged 18.9 outs per game. He was 44-10 vs. this outs prop in that span.<\/p>\n\n\n\n