{"id":364051,"date":"2025-08-21T13:45:22","date_gmt":"2025-08-21T17:45:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=364051"},"modified":"2025-08-21T13:45:22","modified_gmt":"2025-08-21T17:45:22","slug":"mlb-prop-bets-and-predictions-august-21-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mlb-prop-bets-and-predictions-august-21-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Best MLB prop bets Aug. 21: Back starters Sonny Gray and Sean Manaea, Houston’s Jeremy Pena"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Two starting pitchers and Houston Astros shortstop Jeremy Pena<\/a> are featured in my top MLB prop pick recommendations on Thursday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Today’s MLB props narrative<\/strong>: Pena and the Astros are slumping, but I like them to get on track against a pitcher who just dominated them. As for the starters, I like Sonny Gray<\/a>‘s matchup and believe context is important when viewing Sean Manaea<\/a>‘s outs line.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Check out my favourite MLB prop bets for Aug. 21.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

MLB prop bets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Best bet: Manaea over 16.5 outs (-122)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The New York Mets are just at the beginning of a gruelling stretch that sees them play 16 consecutive\u00a0days in a row.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Unless they’re shuffling arms back and forth between the minors, they’re going to need their starters to step up to prevent overtaxing the bullpen.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

David Peterson did that against the Washington Nationals on Tuesday, though Kodai Senga laboured through five innings last night.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Peterson, a southpaw like Manaea, took advantage of his plus matchup: 8 IP, 1 R, 10 Ks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Manaea is set up for a good showing, and I believe he can stay out longer than what we’ve seen from him since making his season debut mid-July.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  • The Nationals have a well-below-average offence vs. lefties, per wRC+, and they’ve struggled at the dish in the second half. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
      \n
    • Washington ranks 25th in wRC+, 27th in on-base percentage and 27th in home runs.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

      They aren’t putting runners on and aren’t hitting for pop. And the forecast is calling for a decent amount of wind blowing in, creating favourable pitching conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Manaea has been roughed up three starts in a row and has only cleared this line once. But he has delivered strong K numbers (10.41 K\/9) and isn’t issuing free passes.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Key stat<\/strong>: Manaea was excellent in five July starts, pitching to a 2.08 ERA with a 5.50 K\/BB rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n