{"id":363895,"date":"2025-08-20T12:46:48","date_gmt":"2025-08-20T16:46:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=363895"},"modified":"2025-08-20T12:46:48","modified_gmt":"2025-08-20T16:46:48","slug":"mlb-home-run-picks-and-predictions-august-20","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mlb-home-run-picks-and-predictions-august-20\/","title":{"rendered":"MLB home run picks Aug. 20: Back Giancarlo Stanton and Willy Adames on Wednesday"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" id=\"block-f861a200-83d7-41ec-85bb-3490dfaff72d\">The red-hot Giancarlo Stanton headlines Wednesday&#8217;s best MLB home run picks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" id=\"block-58d22cc1-151d-47c8-af42-8aa7b8db1166\"><strong>Today&#8217;s MLB HR narrative:<\/strong> Stanton mashed his 13th and 14th homers of the season last night, and now boasts a near-1.000 slugging percentage in August. The New York Yankee has a tough matchup against Tampa Bay&#8217;s Drew Rasmussen, but I still think he can come out on top.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" id=\"block-4043a93e-b814-450a-a4f0-74e0e610b5b4\">Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Aug. 20, featuring a pick on Willy Adames.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"block-9c73e8b2-ff5b-4522-afbb-46b742003eee\">MLB home run picks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/sports\/baseball\/competitions\/10065\"><strong>Full MLB betting markets<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-injury-report\"><strong>MLB injury report<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/top-players\/hitting\/OPS-on-base_plus_slugging\"><strong>MLB player stats<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/standings\/division\"><strong>MLB standings<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" id=\"block-aa080a23-4ec0-49be-a057-9c26e9fa2d4b\"><strong>Best bet: Stanton to hit a home run (+320)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Stanton has improved month over month after a long IL stint to start the season and is going nuclear to close out August:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>June:<\/strong> .243\/.333\/.270, 0 HRs<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>July:<\/strong> .284\/.346\/.635, 8 HRs<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>August:<\/strong> .417\/.512\/.944, 6 HRs<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The towering DH still strikes out a ton and walks a lot, which isn&#8217;t ideal for a play like this. But when he puts bat to ball, the results are undeniable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Stanton doesn&#8217;t have enough PAs to qualify, but his .542 xSLG, 19.8% barrel rate, and 56.3% hard-hit rate would all rank in the 90th percentile or higher, per Baseball Savant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Now, he&#8217;s tasked with cracking Rasmussen, who owns a 2.60 ERA and 0.98 WHIP.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I don&#8217;t think a homer from Stanton is such a crazy ask, given Rasmussen&#8217;s questionable underlying metrics and the hitter-friendly environment of this game.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Rasmussen&#8217;s 3.44 xERA is much higher than his standard number. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>His whiff rate, average exit velocity and hard-hit rate all rank in the bottom-25th percentile. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>George M. Steinbrenner Field, the Yankees&#8217; spring training facility and Rays&#8217; temporary home, is ceding 33% more HRs to right-handed hitters than average, per Baseball Savant&#8217;s park factors.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" id=\"block-dff8126b-9f3f-4ef8-bb6d-0187374cb2ac\"><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> Stanton is slugging .643 against RHP this year and .613 on the road.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"block-e2ef6f25-1bab-4001-9326-588451eaee16\">Best HR predictions<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" id=\"block-a7f5661d-4909-41d8-a067-07467c3b88b8\"><strong>Adames to hit a home run (+265):<\/strong> It&#8217;s hard to get behind anyone on the Giants right now, but Adames checks a lot of the boxes I&#8217;m looking for.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Opponent:<\/strong> Lefty JP Sears is pitching for the San Diego Padres. His 1.8 HR\/9 rate would be the second-highest in MLB if he had enough innings to qualify.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Platoon advantage:<\/strong> The right-hitting Adames is slugging .525 vs. LHP since the all-star break with two home runs.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Location:<\/strong> Petco Park has been the fifth-most homer-friendly venue for RHHs over the last three seasons. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Sears gives up a ton of hard contact and doesn&#8217;t issue many free passes. Adames is slumping big time this month, but still has some pop in his bat and the ability to capitalize on a bad pitch.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" id=\"block-f861a200-83d7-41ec-85bb-3490dfaff72d\"><em>MLB home run picks made at 11:03 a.m. ET on 08\/20\/2025<\/em>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The red-hot Giancarlo Stanton headlines Wednesday&#8217;s best MLB home run picks. Today&#8217;s MLB HR narrative: Stanton mashed his 13th and 14th homers of the season last night, and now boasts a near-1.000 slugging percentage in August. The New York Yankee has a tough matchup against Tampa Bay&#8217;s Drew Rasmussen, but I still think he can [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":363891,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[452,60],"tags":[130],"class_list":["post-363895","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-com","category-mlb","tag-mlb"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>MLB home run picks Aug. 20: Best bets, predictions &amp; odds | NSB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our best MLB home run picks for Aug. 20, 2025. 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