{"id":363719,"date":"2025-08-19T11:46:13","date_gmt":"2025-08-19T15:46:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=363719"},"modified":"2025-08-19T11:46:14","modified_gmt":"2025-08-19T15:46:14","slug":"mlb-home-run-picks-and-predictions-august-19-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mlb-home-run-picks-and-predictions-august-19-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"MLB home run picks Aug. 19: Gunnar Henderson, Freddie Freeman are worth backing Tuesday night"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Tuesday’s MLB home run picks feature two big names \u2014 Gunnar Henderson<\/a> and Freddie Freeman<\/a> \u2014 against two woeful pitchers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Today’s MLB HR narrative:<\/strong> Henderson and Freeman are both swinging hot bats, but these predictions have almost as much to do with the pitchers they’re facing. Walker Buehler and Austin Gomber have been coughing up a ton of home runs in 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Aug. 19.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

MLB home run picks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Best bet: Henderson to hit a home run (+475)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Henderson homered in last night’s series opener against Boston, building on a really nice run that started in late July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From July 26 onward, the star third baseman is batting .304 with a .957 OPS. He only has four home runs in that span, but the contact quality has been excellent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Case in point, Henderson has a .333 xBA during that stretch, per Baseball Savant. So his actual production should be even better.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tonight’s matchup vs. Buehler should be a good one for Henderson, and that’s definitely a factor with this pick:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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  • Left-hitting players are batting .317 with an .860 OPS against the right-handed Buehler this season.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
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    • Buehler has a 1.78 HR\/9, which is the fifth-highest rate among 100 pitchers with 100+ innings of work.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

      For as rough as things have been at times for Buehler, it could actually be worse. His xERA (5.69) and xSLG (.482) both outpace his actual numbers (5.43 ERA, .462 SLG).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Henderson flirted with 40 homers last year, finishing with 37 en route to a fourth-place AL MVP finish. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

      He’s nowhere near that HR total this year, clubbing just 15 so far, but I’m buying in on his recent form and the Buehler matchup.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Key stat:<\/strong> Henderson ranks in the 91st percentile or better in bat speed, hard-hit rate, average exit velocity and xBA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n