{"id":363681,"date":"2025-08-18T16:13:51","date_gmt":"2025-08-18T20:13:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=363681"},"modified":"2025-08-18T16:13:51","modified_gmt":"2025-08-18T20:13:51","slug":"mlb-prop-bets-and-predictions-august-18","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mlb-prop-bets-and-predictions-august-18\/","title":{"rendered":"MLB prop bets Aug. 18: Bet on Kwan to score, Gilbert to rack up strikeouts"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Logan Gilbert, one of the best strikeout arms in the majors this season, is on the mound Monday night against the Philadelphia Phillies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-d0873b89-4dfa-47d6-9954-56140c451c77\"><strong>Today&#8217;s MLB props narrative<\/strong>: Gilbert should continue rolling against a lineup he has baffled in the past, while Steven Kwan has been scoring at a clip that can&#8217;t be ignored. Elsewhere, Gavin Lux is a good bet to go hitless against a wild pitcher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-d0873b89-4dfa-47d6-9954-56140c451c77\">Check out my favourite MLB prop bets for Aug. 18.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"block-22b3784f-32c2-400a-beef-1578a991be49\">MLB prop bets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/sports\/baseball\/competitions\/10065\"><strong>Full MLB betting markets<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-injury-report\"><strong>MLB injury report<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/top-players\/hitting\/OPS-on-base_plus_slugging\"><strong>MLB player stats<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/standings\/division\"><strong>MLB standings<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-0c59b741-4781-48d8-8ffa-d93f8ee90c10\"><strong>Best bet: Lux under 0.5 hits (+125)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This might seem like a questionable pick for a guy who&#8217;s batting .300 in his past 20 games, but I think taking a flier on this fade makes sense.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Victor Mederos gets the ball for a second consecutive turn in the Angels&#8217; rotation, and his sky-high walk rate means Lux has a good chance of reaching via walk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Lux has an 11.0% walk rate this season, which ranks in the 77th percentile, per Baseball Savant.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Mederos has issued seven walks in 8.0 innings at the MLB level this season. Across all pro levels, he has 44 walks in 111.0 innings, which equates to a 3.57 BB\/9. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>For context, Mederos&#8217; 3.57 BB\/9 would be the 10th-highest BB\/9 in the majors among qualified arms.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Lux is a severe splits guy who has a much higher 2025 batting average against right-handed pitchers (.295) than against lefties (.184). So once Mederos is lifted from the game, Lux will be an obvious pinch-hit candidate if the Angels turn to a lefty in the bullpen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Over his past 20 games, Lux has only played a full game five times.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Lux has a .280 BA on the season, but his .254 xBA (42nd percentile) suggests it hasn&#8217;t been properly earned.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-13bf476e-3f27-4d52-86f2-70dff07fd638\"><strong>Key stat<\/strong>: Lux is hitless in 38 of 98 starts (38.8%). That&#8217;s a similar implied probability to this prop (41.7%).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"block-ebade6eb-0e6a-4675-8cbc-3a4396c11ac4\">Best MLB picks<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Kwan over 0.5 runs (-108)<\/strong>: Kwan really hasn&#8217;t been very productive lately, but he&#8217;s been exceptionally timely as a run scorer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Over his past 28 games, Kwan has a .256\/.321\/.376 slash line. But he has 24 runs in that span, going 19-9 vs. this prop.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I&#8217;m sure there&#8217;s a hearty portion of luck at play here, but the end results make this plus-money price tag enticing to me.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Though it wasn&#8217;t confirmed at the time of this writing, Zac Gallen (9-12, 5.31 ERA) is the Diamondbacks&#8217; projected starter. If that happens, it&#8217;ll be great news for this play.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Kwan is 4-for-9 with a double, a triple and a walk vs. Gallen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Gilbert over 6.5 Ks (-106):<\/strong> Limited interleague play means Gilbert doesn&#8217;t see the Phillies very often. But when he does, he tends to dominate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In 80 plate appearances against the Phillies&#8217; active lineup, Gilbert&#8217;s numbers look like this:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>.205 opponent BA<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>.321 opponent SLG<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>32.5 K%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>2.5 BB%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Gilbert has always been solid as a strikeout producer, but he&#8217;s in an elite tier this season. His 12.45 K\/9 is the highest among 127 pitchers with 80-plus innings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The right-hander has averaged 7.3 Ks per start this season, and he&#8217;s catching the Phillies at a good time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Over the past month, Philadelphia has had the sixth-highest K rate (23.1%).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-571cf986-8d14-4776-b519-20fa27d04fec\"><em>MLB prop picks made at 4 p.m. ET on 08\/18\/2025<\/em>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Logan Gilbert, one of the best strikeout arms in the majors this season, is on the mound Monday night against the Philadelphia Phillies. Today&#8217;s MLB props narrative: Gilbert should continue rolling against a lineup he has baffled in the past, while Steven Kwan has been scoring at a clip that can&#8217;t be ignored. Elsewhere, Gavin [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":363656,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[452,60],"tags":[10],"class_list":["post-363681","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-com","category-mlb","tag-mlb-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>MLB prop bets Aug. 18: Picks, predictions &amp; odds | NorthStar Bets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our best MLB prop bets for Aug. 18, 2025. 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