{"id":363609,"date":"2025-08-18T11:24:01","date_gmt":"2025-08-18T15:24:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=363609"},"modified":"2025-08-18T11:24:01","modified_gmt":"2025-08-18T15:24:01","slug":"mlb-home-run-picks-and-predictions-august-18-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mlb-home-run-picks-and-predictions-august-18-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"MLB home run picks Aug. 18: Look for Basallo to hit first homer, Machado to snap a slump"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Samuel Basallo<\/a> is looking for his first MLB home run, and I think tonight could be the night.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Today’s MLB HR narrative:<\/strong> The Baltimore Orioles’ top prospect nearly homered in his first big-league game on Sunday, and his long shot odds make him a player to watch on Monday in Boston. Later on, Manny Machado<\/a> is due for some damage after weeks of hard contact with nothing to show for it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Aug. 18.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

MLB home run picks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Best bet: Basallo to hit a home run (+800)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Interested in a long shot play on a blue-chip talent? <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Look no further than Basallo, a consensus top-20 MLB prospect. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The 21-year-old debuted on Sunday and was robbed of a home run on a 350-foot flyout. He finished 1-for-4 with a single that left his bat at 101.1 mph, per Baseball Savant. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Basallo’s 60-grade power is something the Orioles are excited for, and it shouldn’t be long before he parks his first home run. He had 23 HRs in 76 games with Triple-A Norfolk before getting promoted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The left-hitting rookie has a platoon advantage vs. Boston righty Dustin May, too. Basallo slugged .626 against RHPs in Triple-A this season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

May has allowed eight HRs in his past seven starts. And left-hitting players have a .459 SLG against him this year (notably higher than the .384 SLG he allows to right-hitting players).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Unless you’ve been grinding minor league tape \u2014 and I haven’t been \u2014 there’s not much of a track record to work off of with Basallo. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is more about buying the hype of a big-time prospect who has raked at lower levels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Key stat:<\/strong> May ranks in the 20th percentile or worse in xERA, average exit velocity and hard-hit rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n