Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Aug. 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
MLB home run picks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Best bet: Soto to hit a home run (+300)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n The problem with backing Soto on a home run or total bases prop is that he walks a lot<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Soto’s 17.6% BB rate is the highest in MLB, which takes away plate appearances and an opportunity to belt one over the fence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n But when Soto’s discerning eye finds a pitch he likes, the result is usually going to be pretty. I mean, just look at these absurd batted ball metrics, courtesy of Baseball Savant:<\/p>\n\n\n\n And we’ve seen a lot of that lately. He has five home runs in his last eight games and is up to 30 on the season, which ranks seventh in MLB entering play on Aug. 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Today, Soto battles righty Bryan Woo of the Seattle Mariners, and he might be the perfect opponent for this wager.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Woo has a stellar 0.95 WHIP, thanks to his 4.5% BB rate (96th percentile), but he gives up 1.4 HR\/9, which ranks 43rd out of 58 qualified pitchers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Soto has taken Woo deep before, and is slugging .555 vs. RHPs this year. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Key stat:<\/strong> Soto’s 16.06 at-bats-to-HR ratio ranks ninth among all active players.<\/p>\n\n\n\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/nsb-news.s3.ca-central-1.amazonaws.com\/imgs\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-16-at-1.09.29-PM-1024x484.webp\")
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