{"id":363052,"date":"2025-08-14T13:30:12","date_gmt":"2025-08-14T17:30:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=363052"},"modified":"2025-08-14T13:30:12","modified_gmt":"2025-08-14T17:30:12","slug":"mlb-home-run-picks-and-predictions-august-14-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mlb-home-run-picks-and-predictions-august-14-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"MLB home run picks Aug. 14: Bet on Ketel Marte, Pete Alonso to go deep on Thursday"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" id=\"block-f861a200-83d7-41ec-85bb-3490dfaff72d\">The red-hot <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/pete_alonso\/batting-stats\">Pete Alonso<\/a> headlines Thursday&#8217;s MLB home run picks. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" id=\"block-58d22cc1-151d-47c8-af42-8aa7b8db1166\"><strong>Today&#8217;s MLB HR narrative:<\/strong> Alonso has six home runs this month and now faces a struggling righty at home. That&#8217;s more than enough to grab my attention. Elsewhere, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/ketel_marte\/batting-stats\">Ketel Marte<\/a> has a great shot to hit his third straight home run. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" id=\"block-4043a93e-b814-450a-a4f0-74e0e610b5b4\">Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Aug. 14.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"block-9c73e8b2-ff5b-4522-afbb-46b742003eee\">MLB home run picks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" id=\"block-aa080a23-4ec0-49be-a057-9c26e9fa2d4b\"><strong>Best bet: Alonso to hit a home run (+290)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Alsono is firing on all cylinders in August, slashing .386\/.408\/.886 with six home runs in 11 games.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That&#8217;s a good place to start, and his matchup against Atlanta&#8217;s Bryce Elder makes this pick even more enticing. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Alonso is slugging .556 against righties this year, with 20 of his 28 home runs coming against RHPs.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Elder has a 6.12 ERA this season and ranks in the 40th percentile or worse for K rate, hard-hit rate, barrel rate and average exit velocity. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Alsonso is 3-for-8 against Elder with a home run and a 1.162 xSLG. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Braves&#8217; righty leans heavily on a two-pitch mix, throwing a sinker 42% of the time and a slider 37% of the time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Alsono is slugging .663 against sinkers and .554 against sliders from RHPs, according to Baseball Savant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" id=\"block-dff8126b-9f3f-4ef8-bb6d-0187374cb2ac\"><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> Alonso&#8217;s 14.13 at-bats-to-HR ratio ranks fifth among all active players.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul id=\"block-936075f6-af63-445a-a51c-d3fef94e8ec1\" class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/sports-hub\/baseball\/mlb?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=sportsbook_mlb\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>Full MLB betting markets<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-injury-report?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=injury_reports\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>MLB injury report<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/top-players\/hitting\/OPS-on-base_plus_slugging?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=stats_pages\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>MLB stats &amp; standings<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"block-e2ef6f25-1bab-4001-9326-588451eaee16\">Best HR predictions<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" id=\"block-a7f5661d-4909-41d8-a067-07467c3b88b8\"><strong>Marte to hit a home run (+310):<\/strong> Like Alonso, Marte is wielding a white-hot bat in August, slashing .364\/.451\/.636 and is 6-for-9 in his last two games with a pair of home runs. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The switch-hitting second baseman can produce from both sides of the plate, but does his best job batting from the left against righties:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>.321 batting average<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>.604 slugging percentage<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>17 of his 23 home runs<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Now at mile-high altitude, against a righty with a 7.89 ERA, Marte should be able to blast one into the seats of Coors Stadium. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Bradley Blalock has given up three home runs in his last two games and got hit hard by the Diamondbacks in Arizona just five days ago: 4.2 IP, 7 H, 5 ER.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Marte went 2-for-3 with a double in that contest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" id=\"block-f861a200-83d7-41ec-85bb-3490dfaff72d\"><em>MLB home run picks made at 1:00 p.m. ET on 08\/14\/2025<\/em>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The red-hot Pete Alonso headlines Thursday&#8217;s MLB home run picks. Today&#8217;s MLB HR narrative: Alonso has six home runs this month and now faces a struggling righty at home. That&#8217;s more than enough to grab my attention. Elsewhere, Ketel Marte has a great shot to hit his third straight home run. Check out the best [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":363064,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[60],"tags":[130],"class_list":["post-363052","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb","tag-mlb"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>MLB home run picks Aug. 14: Best bets, predictions &amp; odds | NSB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our best MLB home run picks for Aug. 14, 2025. 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