{"id":362940,"date":"2025-08-13T16:15:45","date_gmt":"2025-08-13T20:15:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=362940"},"modified":"2025-08-13T16:15:53","modified_gmt":"2025-08-13T20:15:53","slug":"mlb-prop-bets-and-predictions-august-13","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mlb-prop-bets-and-predictions-august-13\/","title":{"rendered":"Best MLB prop bets Aug. 13: Back Pete Alonso and Max Muncy, fade Gavin Williams vs. Marlins"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>I&#8217;m backing two sluggers and have a play on Cleveland Guardians starter Gavin Williams as part of my MLB prop pick recommendations for Wednesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-d0873b89-4dfa-47d6-9954-56140c451c77\"><strong>Today&#8217;s MLB props narrative<\/strong>: Pete Alonso and Max Muncy are on tears and have juicy matchups tonight against a pair of aging arms. I expect them to stay hot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-d0873b89-4dfa-47d6-9954-56140c451c77\">Check out my favourite MLB prop bets for Aug. 13 to see why I&#8217;m fading Williams following the best start of his career.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"block-22b3784f-32c2-400a-beef-1578a991be49\">MLB prop bets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/sports\/baseball\/competitions\/10065\"><strong>Full MLB betting markets<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-injury-report\"><strong>MLB injury report<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/top-players\/hitting\/OPS-on-base_plus_slugging\"><strong>MLB player stats<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/standings\/division\"><strong>MLB standings<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-0c59b741-4781-48d8-8ffa-d93f8ee90c10\"><strong>Best bet: Williams under 17.5 outs (-118)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Williams took a no-hitter into the ninth his last time out. He threw a career-high 126 pitches over 8.2 innings, marking the fourth straight start he cleared this outs total.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That enormous workload gives me pause, and I don\u2019t trust him to clear a number he fails to top more often than not.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On the season, he\u2019s just below a 50% hit rate vs. a 17.5-out line (11-12).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Williams has an impressive 3.17 ERA, a strong whiff rate and excellent velocity. But until he gets his walks under control, I&#8217;m not expecting six-plus innings on the regular.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The right-hander issued four walks in the near-no-hitter and has walked multiple batters in all but three starts.&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>His 12.6 BB% is the highest mark among qualified starters and he\u2019s been well above the league-average mark in each of his three seasons.&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>The Miami Marlins don\u2019t draw a lot of free passes (21st in MLB), but they\u2019ve been a better-than-league-average offence vs. righties.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Cleveland\u2019s bullpen worked four innings yesterday but was off Monday, so the group shouldn\u2019t be overly taxed ahead of tonight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-13bf476e-3f27-4d52-86f2-70dff07fd638\"><strong>Key stat<\/strong>: Since Williams&#8217; debut in 2023, only three pitchers have a higher walk rate (minimum 250 innings).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"block-ebade6eb-0e6a-4675-8cbc-3a4396c11ac4\">Best MLB picks<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Alonso over 1.5 total bases (+100)<\/strong>: I&#8217;m endorsing Alonso as one way to fade Atlanta Braves starter Carlos Carrasco.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The veteran right-hander, making his third start for the Braves, was pummeled his last time out: nine hits and six runs over 5.2 innings. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He has a 6.18 ERA in 10 appearances between the Braves and New York Yankees. Last year, his ERA was 5.64, and the year before that, 6.80.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Atlanta&#8217;s bullpen hasn&#8217;t been good, either, sporting a 5.88 ERA in the second half (27th in MLB).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Carrasco isn&#8217;t fooling anyone at this point in his career and is a good bet to surrender plenty of contact.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A red-hot Alonso is among the Mets who can deliver big contact.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The first baseman (.925 OPS vs. RHPs) is batting .350 and slugging .900 this month.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>His .267 average is the second-best mark of his career and he&#8217;s always a big power threat. Alonso has six homers this month and 28 on the season. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Muncy over 1.5 total bases (+110) &amp; 1+ RBI (+125)<\/strong>: Like Carrasco, Kyle Hendricks is well past his best-before date.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The righty has pitched much better vs. left-handed batters this year but that hasn&#8217;t always been the case, and Muncy is a no-doubter play with a platoon advantage. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Hendricks doesn&#8217;t miss bats and doesn&#8217;t issue many walks, meaning Dodgers hitters should be challenged in the zone. They&#8217;re tied for first in wRC+, and they&#8217;ll be at a great hitter&#8217;s park, making this a terrible spot for Hendricks at home.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Muncy has a .983 OPS vs. righties, blasting 15 of his 17 homers off them.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>He&#8217;s been a beast in August, batting .348 and slugging .870. He has four homers and eight RBI in nine games, hitting behind the Dodgers&#8217; collection of former MVPs.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-571cf986-8d14-4776-b519-20fa27d04fec\"><em>MLB prop picks made at 3:20 p.m. ET on 08\/13\/2025<\/em>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I&#8217;m backing two sluggers and have a play on Cleveland Guardians starter Gavin Williams as part of my MLB prop pick recommendations for Wednesday. Today&#8217;s MLB props narrative: Pete Alonso and Max Muncy are on tears and have juicy matchups tonight against a pair of aging arms. I expect them to stay hot. Check out [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":362916,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[452,60],"tags":[10],"class_list":["post-362940","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-com","category-mlb","tag-mlb-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>MLB prop bets Aug. 13: Picks, predictions &amp; odds | NorthStar Bets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our best MLB prop bets for Aug. 13, 2025. 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