{"id":362809,"date":"2025-08-12T13:15:50","date_gmt":"2025-08-12T17:15:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=362809"},"modified":"2025-08-12T13:15:51","modified_gmt":"2025-08-12T17:15:51","slug":"mlb-home-run-picks-and-predictions-august-12","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mlb-home-run-picks-and-predictions-august-12\/","title":{"rendered":"MLB home run picks Aug. 12: Bet on Athletics rookie Nick Kurtz to go deep vs. Rays"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" id=\"block-f861a200-83d7-41ec-85bb-3490dfaff72d\">Athletics rookie sensation Nick Kurtz headlines Tuesday&#8217;s MLB home run picks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" id=\"block-58d22cc1-151d-47c8-af42-8aa7b8db1166\"><strong>Today&#8217;s MLB HR narrative:<\/strong> Kurtz hasn&#8217;t gone deep since his four-homer game last month, but has a great matchup against Tampa Bay Rays starter Shane Baz. Elsewhere, I&#8217;m looking for Josh Naylor to do damage at Camden Yards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" id=\"block-4043a93e-b814-450a-a4f0-74e0e610b5b4\">Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Aug. 12.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"block-9c73e8b2-ff5b-4522-afbb-46b742003eee\">MLB home run picks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/sports\/baseball\/competitions\/10065\"><strong>Full MLB betting markets<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-injury-report\"><strong>MLB injury report<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/top-players\/hitting\/OPS-on-base_plus_slugging\"><strong>MLB player stats<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/standings\/division\"><strong>MLB standings<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" id=\"block-aa080a23-4ec0-49be-a057-9c26e9fa2d4b\"><strong>Best bet: Kurtz to hit a home run (+265)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" id=\"block-661b5969-14c2-442c-9d09-e4660479c7d2\">Kurtz is barreling toward AL Rookie of the Year honours, despite his recent power outage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In the 14 games since hitting four home runs against the Houston Astros, Kurtz is slugging just .340. But he has a .300 batting average in that same span, and there&#8217;s plenty working in his favour tonight:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Sutter Health Park, the Athletics&#8217; temporary home venue in Sacramento, allows 14% more home runs to LHHs than league average, according to Baseball Savant&#8217;s Park factors.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Kurtz is slashing .350\/.437\/.723 vs. RHPs this year, and 19 of his 23 HRs have come against righties.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Baz is one of the most homer-prone arms in MLB. His 1.5 HR\/9 rate ranks 50th among 60 qualified pitchers.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tampa&#8217;s righty has gotten touched up lately, owning an unsightly 6.27 ERA since the beginning of July with seven home runs in as many starts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Baz held Kurtz hitless when he threw against the Athletics on July 1, but I&#8217;m optimistic the rookie will build on those at-bats and find a way to punish the righty this time around.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" id=\"block-dff8126b-9f3f-4ef8-bb6d-0187374cb2ac\"><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> Kurtz&#8217;s 213 wRC+ vs. RHPs is the best in MLB.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"block-e2ef6f25-1bab-4001-9326-588451eaee16\">Best HR predictions<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" id=\"block-a7f5661d-4909-41d8-a067-07467c3b88b8\"><strong>Naylor to hit a home run (+375):<\/strong> Naylor is getting into quite the groove with his new ballclub, slashing .346\/.433\/.808 with three home runs in August.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Seattle Mariners wanted a lefty power bat, and the Canadian is delivering. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tonight, Naylor gets to play in one of MLB&#8217;s most hitter-friendly venues for lefty bats. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Camden Yards is allowing 28% more home runs to LHHs than average over the last three years. That&#8217;s tied for first with Great American Ball Park.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Baltimore&#8217;s Dean Kremer doesn&#8217;t walk many batters and has a low K rate, which gives me confidence that the ball will be put in play.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And Naylor has done that a lot against the right-handed Kremer, going 6-for-9 with a home run.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" id=\"block-3d01e179-8508-4594-88f2-415793be91b5\"><em>MLB home run picks made at 10:56 a.m. ET on 08\/12\/2025<\/em>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Athletics rookie sensation Nick Kurtz headlines Tuesday&#8217;s MLB home run picks. Today&#8217;s MLB HR narrative: Kurtz hasn&#8217;t gone deep since his four-homer game last month, but has a great matchup against Tampa Bay Rays starter Shane Baz. Elsewhere, I&#8217;m looking for Josh Naylor to do damage at Camden Yards. Check out the best MLB home [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":362791,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[452,60],"tags":[130],"class_list":["post-362809","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-com","category-mlb","tag-mlb"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>MLB home run picks Aug. 12: Best bets, predictions &amp; odds | NSB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our best MLB home run picks for Aug. 12, 2025. 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