{"id":362219,"date":"2025-08-09T15:37:07","date_gmt":"2025-08-09T19:37:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=362219"},"modified":"2025-08-09T15:37:07","modified_gmt":"2025-08-09T19:37:07","slug":"mlb-home-run-picks-and-predictions-august-9","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mlb-home-run-picks-and-predictions-august-9\/","title":{"rendered":"MLB home run picks Aug. 9: Bryce Harper, Bobby Witt Jr. are worth backing to go deep"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Bryce Harper and Bobby Witt Jr. are my targets in Saturday&#8217;s star-powered version of MLB home run picks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Today&#8217;s MLB HR narrative:<\/strong> Witt will dig into the box against the most homer-friendly pitcher in the league tonight, and I expect him to take advantage. As for Harper, his second-half surge is worth investing in.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Aug. 9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">MLB home run picks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/sports\/baseball\/competitions\/10065\"><strong>Full MLB betting markets<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-injury-report\"><strong>MLB injury report<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/top-players\/hitting\/OPS-on-base_plus_slugging\"><strong>MLB player stats<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/standings\/division\"><strong>MLB standings<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Best bet: <strong><strong>Witt to hit a home run (+225)<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The best pitcher to target on the home run prop market today is Bailey Ober. And I don&#8217;t think it&#8217;s particularly close.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Among 105 pitchers with 90+ innings pitched, Ober has the highest HR\/9 rate (2.13).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>He has allowed at least one homer in seven consecutive starts, serving up 17 HRs overall in that span.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>The likeliest player to go deep at Target Field tonight is Witt, and I think this price point is worth jumping at.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The shortstop homered in last night&#8217;s series opener, improving his slash line to .275\/.373\/.569 over the past 13 games.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Also, Witt has fantastic numbers against Ober:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>12-for-25 (.480)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>5 extra-base hits (1 HR)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>.765 xSLG<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Ober throws a four-seam fastball that averages just 90.4 mph, per Baseball Savant. Given that Witt is slugging .533 against four-seamers from righties, he should be salivating at the thought of that pitch.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Furthermore, Ober&#8217;s three secondary pitches to right-hitting players have been whacked all over the yard. His changeup, slider and sweeper have a combined .577 SLG from opposing RHBs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> Witt ranks in the 90th percentile or better in xBA, xSLG and average exit velocity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Best HR predictions<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Harper to hit a home run (+285):<\/strong> Jacob deGrom gets the ball for the Texas Rangers, which initially gave me pause about backing anyone on the Phillies&#8217; side.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But, for as effective as deGrom has been this season (10-4, 2.80 ERA), he&#8217;s quite capable of making a mistake that exits the park<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>deGrom has allowed 10 homers in his past six games. And he&#8217;s below the 50th percentile (i.e., below average) in barrel rate, hard-hit rate and average exit velocity this season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With that in mind, I like Harper as a home run option for Philadelphia. He&#8217;s been awesome since the all-star break and has already homered off deGrom twice in his career.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Since the break, Harper is slugging .649 with seven HRs in 19 games.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>MLB home run picks made at 3:30 p.m. ET on 08\/09\/2025<\/em>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bryce Harper and Bobby Witt Jr. are my targets in Saturday&#8217;s star-powered version of MLB home run picks. Today&#8217;s MLB HR narrative: Witt will dig into the box against the most homer-friendly pitcher in the league tonight, and I expect him to take advantage. As for Harper, his second-half surge is worth investing in. Check [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":362090,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[452,60],"tags":[10],"class_list":["post-362219","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-com","category-mlb","tag-mlb-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>MLB home run picks Aug. 9: Best bets, predictions &amp; odds | NSB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our best MLB home run picks for Aug. 9, 2025. 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