{"id":361835,"date":"2025-08-08T10:27:02","date_gmt":"2025-08-08T14:27:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=361835"},"modified":"2025-08-08T10:27:02","modified_gmt":"2025-08-08T14:27:02","slug":"mlb-home-run-picks-and-predictions-august-8","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mlb-home-run-picks-and-predictions-august-8\/","title":{"rendered":"MLB home run picks Aug. 8: Bet on Corbin Carroll to continue August surge"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Corbin Carroll is off to a strong start in August, and he&#8217;s the headliner for my Friday night MLB home run picks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Today&#8217;s MLB HR narrative:<\/strong> Carroll won&#8217;t have a platoon advantage tonight, but he does have some strong results against the pitcher he&#8217;s facing. In St. Louis, Seiya Suzuki has a compelling matchup against a sinkerballer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Aug. 8.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">MLB home run picks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/sports\/baseball\/competitions\/10065\"><strong>Full MLB betting markets<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-injury-report\"><strong>MLB injury report<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/top-players\/hitting\/OPS-on-base_plus_slugging\"><strong>MLB player stats<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/standings\/division\"><strong>MLB standings<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Best bet: <strong><strong>Carroll to hit a home run (+320)<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Don&#8217;t let Carroll&#8217;s 5-foot-10, 165-pound frame fool you. He can wallop a baseball with the best of &#8217;em.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Carroll is on his way to leading the National League in triples for a third straight season. But he&#8217;s also got 23 home runs, which are two shy of his career-best mark.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>His expected slugging percentage is .546, which ranks in MLB&#8217;s 94th percentile, per Baseball Savant. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And given that his actual SLG is also .546, that&#8217;s completely legit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Carroll also ranks in the 86th percentile or better in barrel rate, average exit velocity and hard-hit rate. That kind of consistent pop never hurts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Tonight, Carroll will be in a lefty-on-lefty matchup that I&#8217;d typically prefer to avoid. But he has some very encouraging numbers vs. Colorado southpaw Austin Gomber: 6-for-13 (.462) with two home runs and a double.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Gomber has coughed up at least one HR in six straight outings, and he has a 6.18 ERA in nine starts overall this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Also, Gomber owns a 13.6% barrel rate, which ranks in the second percentile. That metric, along with his 21st-percentile xBA (.272), demonstrates the type of high-quality contact he&#8217;s allowing. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> Carroll has two home runs and a .970 OPS so far this month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Best HR predictions<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Suzuki to hit a home run (+375):<\/strong> It&#8217;s always preferable to back Suzuki when there&#8217;s a lefty on the mound, but he&#8217;s a pretty dangerous hitter against righties, too.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Tonight, Suzuki will face Cardinals starter Michael McGreevy, a sinker-first pitcher whose .298 xBA ranks in the fourth percentile, per Baseball Savant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On June 24 in St. Louis, Suzuki went 2-for-3 with a home run off McGreevy. He drilled a sinker 404 feet to left-centre field.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ideally, we&#8217;ll see something like that again. Suzuki is 18-for-58 (.310) with five homers and a .638 SLG against sinkers from RHPs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The outfielder is slugging .498 vs. RHPs overall this year and is tied for seventh in MLB in home runs (27).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>MLB home run picks made at 10:20 a.m. ET on 08\/08\/2025<\/em>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Corbin Carroll is off to a strong start in August, and he&#8217;s the headliner for my Friday night MLB home run picks. Today&#8217;s MLB HR narrative: Carroll won&#8217;t have a platoon advantage tonight, but he does have some strong results against the pitcher he&#8217;s facing. In St. Louis, Seiya Suzuki has a compelling matchup against [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":361831,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[452,60],"tags":[10],"class_list":["post-361835","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-com","category-mlb","tag-mlb-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>MLB home run picks Aug. 8: Best bets, predictions &amp; odds | NSB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our best MLB home run picks for Aug. 8, 2025. 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