{"id":361631,"date":"2025-08-07T09:42:12","date_gmt":"2025-08-07T13:42:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=361631"},"modified":"2025-08-07T09:42:28","modified_gmt":"2025-08-07T13:42:28","slug":"mlb-home-run-picks-and-predictions-august-7-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mlb-home-run-picks-and-predictions-august-7-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"MLB home run picks Aug. 7: Ramirez, Cruz are worth a look on Thursday&#8217;s light slate"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Thursday&#8217;s MLB slate features just four games, and I&#8217;m tapping into two of them for some home run picks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Today&#8217;s MLB HR narrative:<\/strong> Agustin Ramirez has been a solid offensive contributor in his first season with the Marlins, and tonight&#8217;s righty-on-righty matchup should work in his favour. Elsewhere, Oneil Cruz&#8217;s propensity to hit the ball <em>really<\/em> hard has my attention.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Aug. 7.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">MLB home run picks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Best bet: <strong><strong>Ramirez to hit a home run (+450)<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With right-hander Carlos Carrasco on the mound for the Braves tonight, my initial instinct was to target a left-hitting player in the Marlins&#8217; lineup.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But Carrasco has reverse splits, meaning his better numbers have actually come against LHBs this season. So let&#8217;s highlight a right-hitting batter who should be a solid candidate to go yard.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ramirez, a rookie catcher, is having a solid season across the board when it comes to contact quality.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to Baseball Savant, the 23-year-old ranks in the 82nd percentile or better in xBA, xSLG, average exit velocity and hard-hit rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ramirez has some modest reverse splits, posting a slightly better OPS against righties (.756) than against lefties (.732). But this is really more about Carrasco.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The 38-year-old pitcher has allowed a .299\/.347\/.642 slash line to RHBs this year, including five homers in nine games.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Carrasco ranks in the 12th percentile in barrel rate (11.0%) and in the 14th percentile in xBA (.281). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Any right-hitting players with some pop are worth a look when Carrasco takes the mound.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> Ramirez has 17 home runs this season, and 12 of them came against right-handed pitchers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"cacheembed:117107\">Embed: #117107<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/sports-hub\/baseball\/mlb?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=sportsbook_mlb\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>Full MLB betting markets<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-injury-report?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=injury_reports\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>MLB injury report<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/top-players\/hitting\/OPS-on-base_plus_slugging?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=stats_pages\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>MLB stats &amp; standings<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Best HR predictions<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Cruz to hit a home run (+500):<\/strong> Cruz comes up empty. A lot. But when he connects, the ball can go a long, long way.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Cruz&#8217;s 31.8% strikeout rate ranks in the second percentile in MLB, and his .234 xBA ranks in the 16th percentile. Not great. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But there&#8217;s a <em>lot<\/em> of pop in his bat, too:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>100th-percentile exit velocity (96.4 mph)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>99th-percentile hard-hit rate (57.9%)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>98th-percentile barrel rate (19.8%)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>The outfielder&#8217;s elite power potential is what landed him in the Home Run Derby, and it&#8217;s why he&#8217;s an interesting play at 5-to-1. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Reds starter Brady Singer doesn&#8217;t allow a ton of home runs, but his 9.4% barrel rate (32nd percentile) and 90.5 mph average exit velo (19th percentile) aren&#8217;t exactly glowing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At this price, you could do worse than back a guy who clubs 95+ mph rockets in his sleep.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>MLB home run picks made at 9:20 a.m. ET on 08\/07\/2025<\/em>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Thursday&#8217;s MLB slate features just four games, and I&#8217;m tapping into two of them for some home run picks. Today&#8217;s MLB HR narrative: Agustin Ramirez has been a solid offensive contributor in his first season with the Marlins, and tonight&#8217;s righty-on-righty matchup should work in his favour. Elsewhere, Oneil Cruz&#8217;s propensity to hit the ball [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":361639,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[60],"tags":[10],"class_list":["post-361631","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb","tag-mlb-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>MLB home run picks Aug. 7: Best bets, predictions &amp; odds | NSB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our best MLB home run picks for Aug. 7, 2025. 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