{"id":361297,"date":"2025-08-04T14:37:42","date_gmt":"2025-08-04T18:37:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=361297"},"modified":"2025-08-04T14:37:43","modified_gmt":"2025-08-04T18:37:43","slug":"mlb-home-run-picks-and-predictions-august-4","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mlb-home-run-picks-and-predictions-august-4\/","title":{"rendered":"MLB home run picks Aug. 4: Andrew Vaughn is a worthwhile long shot"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Andrew Vaughn has been a revelation for the Milwaukee Brewers, and he&#8217;s a worthwhile long shot to go deep on Monday night.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Today&#8217;s MLB HR narrative:<\/strong> Milwaukee gave Vaughn a fresh start about a month ago, and it&#8217;s really paying off for both sides. He has an 1.130 OPS through 19 games with his new club.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Aug. 4, featuring a prediction on Nick Castellanos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">MLB home run picks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/sports\/baseball\/competitions\/10065\"><strong>Full MLB betting markets<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-injury-report\"><strong>MLB injury report<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/top-players\/hitting\/OPS-on-base_plus_slugging\"><strong>MLB player stats<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/standings\/division\"><strong>MLB standings<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Best bet: <strong><strong>Vaughn to hit a home run (+525)<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>How about this summer resurgence by Vaughn?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The 2019 No. 3 overall pick wore out his welcome with the White Sox earlier this season, getting demoted to the minors and eventually traded to the Brewers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>After a few strong weeks with Triple-A Nashville, Vaughn was called up by the Brewers &#8230; and he&#8217;s more than earned his big-league reinstatement. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Through 19 games with Milwaukee, Vaughn has been blazing hot:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>6 HRs<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>.373 BA<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>.701 SLG<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>58% hard-hit rate<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Given that Vaughn had a .314 SLG in 48 games with the White Sox before the trade, he&#8217;s likely coming back to earth at some point. Then again, his batted-ball metrics have been very encouraging all season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The stoic first baseman ranks in the 80th percentile or better in xSLG (.499), average exit velocity (92.2 mph) and barrel rate (13.9%).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He&#8217;ll face Braves starter Erick Fedde, who routinely gives up a lot of hard contact. So far this season, Fedde ranks in the 22nd percentile or worse in hard-hit rate (44.1%), xBA (.294) and average exit velocity (90.8 mph)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> Fedde has allowed nine HRs in his past six starts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Best HR predictions<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Castellanos to hit a home run (+333):<\/strong> For as bad as things have been for Baltimore starter Cade Povich, it should actually be worse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In 13 outings, Povich has a 5.15 ERA and a .287 opponent BA. But those are both better marks than his xERA (6.33) and xBA (.294), as measured by Baseball Savant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The left-hander has the daunting task of facing a loaded Phillies lineup, and I&#8217;m looking to buy in.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Kyle Schwarber (+175) is the obvious choice, but that&#8217;s too square for me to write about. I think Castellanos is an intriguing candidate based on his numbers at home and against southpaws. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>At Home:<\/strong> 222 PAs, .288\/.329\/.490 slash line, 10 HRs<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>vs. LHPs:<\/strong> 132 PAs, .289\/.341\/.463 slash line, four HRs<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Castellanos has gone deep in back-to-back home series. Here&#8217;s hoping he makes it three in a row tonight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>MLB home run picks made at 2:20 p.m. ET on 08\/04\/2025<\/em>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Andrew Vaughn has been a revelation for the Milwaukee Brewers, and he&#8217;s a worthwhile long shot to go deep on Monday night. Today&#8217;s MLB HR narrative: Milwaukee gave Vaughn a fresh start about a month ago, and it&#8217;s really paying off for both sides. He has an 1.130 OPS through 19 games with his new [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":361282,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[452,60],"tags":[10],"class_list":["post-361297","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-com","category-mlb","tag-mlb-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>MLB home run picks Aug. 4: Best bets, predictions &amp; odds | NSB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our best MLB home run picks for Aug. 4, 2025. 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