{"id":361285,"date":"2025-08-04T14:08:24","date_gmt":"2025-08-04T18:08:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=361285"},"modified":"2025-08-04T14:08:24","modified_gmt":"2025-08-04T18:08:24","slug":"mlb-prop-bets-and-predictions-august-4","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mlb-prop-bets-and-predictions-august-4\/","title":{"rendered":"Best MLB prop bets Aug. 4: Bet on Arraez, Contreras in plus-money picks"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>I&#8217;m backing a trio of multi-time all-stars in Monday&#8217;s MLB prop bets, and two of the predictions come in at plus money.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-d0873b89-4dfa-47d6-9954-56140c451c77\"><strong>Today&#8217;s MLB props narrative<\/strong>: Luis Arraez is back to batting-title-calibre form, and tonight&#8217;s pitching matchup makes him a perfect candidate to collect multiple hits. Elsewhere, Max Fried should stymie a Texas Rangers lineup that has been terrible against southpaws this season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-d0873b89-4dfa-47d6-9954-56140c451c77\">Check out my favourite MLB prop bets for Monday, Aug. 4, featuring William Contreras.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"block-22b3784f-32c2-400a-beef-1578a991be49\">MLB prop bets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/sports\/baseball\/competitions\/10065\"><strong>Full MLB betting markets<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-injury-report\"><strong>MLB injury report<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/top-players\/hitting\/OPS-on-base_plus_slugging\"><strong>MLB player stats<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/standings\/division\"><strong>MLB standings<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-0c59b741-4781-48d8-8ffa-d93f8ee90c10\"><strong>Best bet: Arraez over 1.5 hits (+110)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-310bddf4-d3c1-4fc6-8fe4-37281455da02\">It looks like the old Arraez is back. And that&#8217;s a very good thing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Arraez, who was an all-star and a batting title winner in each of the past three seasons, is having a down year by his lofty standards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But the soft-hitting, high-contact infielder has turned a corner recently and is now riding a hot streak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Over his past 16 games, Arraez is 26-for-65 (.400) with nine multi-hit performances.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Amazingly, he only has four walks and <em>one<\/em> strikeout in that span. This is a guy who, more than anyone else in baseball, is determined to get his bat on the ball.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>During this 16-game stretch, Arraez has a .355 xBA, per Baseball Savant, despite a feeble 15% hard-hit rate. He&#8217;s adept at hitting into soft spots in the defence \u2014 rather than bashing the ball all over the place \u2014 and he&#8217;s been doing it for years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Tonight&#8217;s matchup should be a perfect one for Arraez. He&#8217;ll face Arizona starter Brandon Pfaadt, who has been one of the very worst pitchers in baseball in 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Among 357 qualified pitchers, Pfaadt ranks 354th in xBA (.309) and 353rd in xERA (6.29).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In Pfaadt&#8217;s three-year career, left-hitting players have a .284 BA against him. And Arraez has been among the most successful.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-13bf476e-3f27-4d52-86f2-70dff07fd638\"><strong>Key stat<\/strong>: Arraez is 10-for-19 (.526) with two doubles against Pfaadt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"block-ebade6eb-0e6a-4675-8cbc-3a4396c11ac4\">Best MLB picks<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-310bddf4-d3c1-4fc6-8fe4-37281455da02\"><strong>Contreras over 0.5 runs (+105)<\/strong>: This pick has some value to me based largely on the fact that Erick Fedde is on the mound for the Braves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-310bddf4-d3c1-4fc6-8fe4-37281455da02\">Fedde has been an absolute tire fire in the past month and a half. In his past eight starts, he has a 9.37 ERA, with 64 baserunners allowed in 32.2 innings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Contreras has cashed this bet in six straight games, reaching base in 15 of 30 plate appearances in that span. He typically bats second or third for the Brewers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Oh, and the standout catcher has excellent numbers vs. Fedde: 9-for-16 (.563) with two home runs, a double and two walks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Fried over 5.5 Ks (-150)<\/strong>: If you can stomach this heavily-juiced price, I think it&#8217;s worth a look on Monday night.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The left-hander is facing a Rangers squad that hasn&#8217;t been at its best since the all-star break:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>23rd in K rate (24.9%)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>26th in wRC+ (87)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>27th in BA (.226)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Texas has also struggled against left-handed pitching all year, posting the fifth-highest K rate (25.2%) and the third-lowest wRC+ (76).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Fried, who fanned nine batters last time out, is 12-10 vs. this prop this season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He also has 13 Ks in just 43 plate appearances against the Rangers&#8217; active lineup (30.2 K%).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-571cf986-8d14-4776-b519-20fa27d04fec\"><em>MLB prop picks made at 1:54 p.m. ET on 08\/04\/2025<\/em>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I&#8217;m backing a trio of multi-time all-stars in Monday&#8217;s MLB prop bets, and two of the predictions come in at plus money. Today&#8217;s MLB props narrative: Luis Arraez is back to batting-title-calibre form, and tonight&#8217;s pitching matchup makes him a perfect candidate to collect multiple hits. Elsewhere, Max Fried should stymie a Texas Rangers lineup [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":361243,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[452,60],"tags":[10],"class_list":["post-361285","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-com","category-mlb","tag-mlb-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>MLB prop bets Aug. 4: Picks, predictions &amp; odds | NorthStar Bets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our best MLB prop bets for Aug. 4, 2025. 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