{"id":360613,"date":"2025-08-02T11:32:24","date_gmt":"2025-08-02T15:32:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=360613"},"modified":"2025-08-02T11:32:25","modified_gmt":"2025-08-02T15:32:25","slug":"mlb-home-run-picks-and-predictions-august-2-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mlb-home-run-picks-and-predictions-august-2-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"MLB home run picks Aug. 2: Tyler Soderstrom has value vs. a struggling Zac Gallen"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Tonight&#8217;s top MLB home run pick comes from the Bay Area, where a struggling Zac Gallen must contend with an A&#8217;s team in a groove.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Today&#8217;s MLB HR narrative:<\/strong> There are a handful of viable HR picks in the A&#8217;s lineup tonight, but <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/tyler_soderstrom\/batting-stats\">Tyler Soderstrom<\/a> stood out to me from a value standpoint. Earlier on Saturday, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/alex_bregman\/batting-stats\">Alex Bregman<\/a> is a worthy pick to go deep against his former team.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Aug. 2.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">MLB home run picks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Best bet: <strong><strong>Soderstrom to hit a home run (+475)<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Arizona Diamondbacks are in a tailspin that prompted them to be sellers at the trade deadline. Looking at where this season has gone wrong for the Snakes, one of the key culprits is Gallen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Two years removed from an all-star bid and an NL Cy Young podium finish, Gallen has been one of MLB&#8217;s worst pitchers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He has a 5.60 ERA \u2014 two full runs north of his 3.60 career ERA \u2014 and has allowed an NL-high 23 home runs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Gallen also ranks in the 15th percentile or worse in xERA, barrel rate, hard-hit rate and average exit velocity, per Baseball Savant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Tonight, Gallen will pitch inside Sacramento&#8217;s Sutter Health Park, which is among the most offence-friendly venues in the league. Yet another reason to back someone in the A&#8217;s lineup to go yard.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I&#8217;ve settled on Soderstrom, who has a platoon advantage and is swinging a hot bat lately.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Soderstrom is slugging .506 vs. RHPs this year, and 18 of his 19 HRs have come in righty-on-lefty matchups.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ideally, the outfielder sits on a four-seam fastball and barrels it up. He&#8217;s batting .338 with a .632 SLG vs. four-seamers from RHPs this season. Gallen&#8217;s four-seamer averages 93.3 mph, which is 1.6 mph below average.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> In his past 21 games, Soderstrom has five HRs and a .584 SLG.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"cacheembed:116540\">Embed: #116540<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/sports-hub\/baseball\/mlb?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=sportsbook_mlb\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>Full MLB betting markets<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-injury-report?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=injury_reports\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>MLB injury report<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/top-players\/hitting\/OPS-on-base_plus_slugging?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=stats_pages\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>MLB stats &amp; standings<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Best HR predictions<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Bregman to hit a home run (+320):<\/strong> When Bregman signed with the Red Sox this offseason, much was made of his career exploits at Fenway Park.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Now as a member of the home team, he has continued to do plenty of damage in Boston.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Career at Fenway:<\/strong> 54 games, 12 HRs, .325\/.429\/.615 slash line<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>2025 season at Fenway:<\/strong> 33 games, 5 HRs, .292\/.386\/.525 slash line<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>The all-star third baseman has three homers in his past 10 games, posting a .667 SLG in that span. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Houston sends left-hander Colton Gordon to the mound today, and Gordon&#8217;s numbers versus right-hitting players are disastrous.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In 13 games, Gordon has allowed 12 homers and a .309\/.336\/.569 slash line vs. RHHs. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The only thing Gordon does really well is avoid walks. His 4.0% walk rate ranks in the 98th percentile, per Baseball Savant. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That just means Bregman should have every opportunity to tee off.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>MLB home run picks made at 10:56 a.m. ET on 08\/02\/2025<\/em>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Tonight&#8217;s top MLB home run pick comes from the Bay Area, where a struggling Zac Gallen must contend with an A&#8217;s team in a groove. Today&#8217;s MLB HR narrative: There are a handful of viable HR picks in the A&#8217;s lineup tonight, but Tyler Soderstrom stood out to me from a value standpoint. Earlier on [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":360624,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[60],"tags":[10],"class_list":["post-360613","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb","tag-mlb-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>MLB home run picks Aug. 2: Best bets, predictions &amp; odds | NSB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our best MLB home run picks for Aug. 2, 2025. 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