{"id":360466,"date":"2025-08-01T12:51:42","date_gmt":"2025-08-01T16:51:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=360466"},"modified":"2025-08-01T12:51:42","modified_gmt":"2025-08-01T16:51:42","slug":"mlb-home-run-picks-and-predictions-aug-1-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mlb-home-run-picks-and-predictions-aug-1-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"MLB home run picks Aug. 1: Back Manny Machado, Luis Robert Jr. to go deep"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The red-hot <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/manny_machado\/batting-stats\">Manny Machado<\/a> headlines Friday&#8217;s MLB home run picks. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Today&#8217;s MLB HR narrative:<\/strong> Machado closed out July on a monster eight-game hit streak, and has solid value to go deep off lefty Matthew Liberatore at Petco Park tonight. Elsewhere, I&#8217;m targeting <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/luis_robert_jr\/batting-stats\">Luis Robert Jr.<\/a> against another struggling southpaw.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Aug. 1.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">MLB home run picks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Best bet: <strong><strong>Machado to hit a home run (+350)<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Machado is tearing the cover off the ball during his hitting streak. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>.529 batting average<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>.824 slugging percentage<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>2 HRs, 11 RBIs<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The third baseman also has zero walks and a 69% hard-hit rate (balls batted above 95 mph) in that span. For context, Kyle Schwarber leads MLB with a season-long 60% hard-hit rate. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Machado does most of his damage against lefties, too.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>He&#8217;s slugging .545 against LHP and .495 against RHP. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Half of Machado&#8217;s 20 home runs have come agianst southpaws. He&#8217;s had 178 fewer at-bats against LHP than RHP. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Liberatore should be a perfect matchup for him to continue that trend. He&#8217;s a contact pitcher who gives up a lot of hard contact. For us, that&#8217;s a great combination.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Only 24.1% of his opponents&#8217; at-bats end in a strikeout or walk, and he ranks in the bottom third percentile for hard-hit rate and barrel rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> Machado is 2-for-3 against Liberatore with a home run.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"cacheembed:116507\">Embed: #116507<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/sports-hub\/baseball\/mlb?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=sportsbook_mlb\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>Full MLB betting markets<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-injury-report?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=injury_reports\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>MLB injury report<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/top-players\/hitting\/OPS-on-base_plus_slugging?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=stats_pages\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>MLB stats &amp; standings<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Best HR predictions<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Robert to hit a home run (+480):<\/strong> Robert batted below the Mendoza line in April, May and June but caught fire in July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>.353 batting average<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>.549 slugging percentage<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>3 HRs<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">His 17% K rate in that span is well below his 28.5% season-long average, and gives me confidence he will make some solid contact against Los Angeles Angels southpaw Tyler Anderson.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Anderson (4.41 ERA) has given up nine home runs in his last eight games and only generates a ground ball on 30.8% of balls in play (sixth pecentile among MLB pitchers).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Robert is slugging .568 against lefties this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>MLB home run picks made at 11:56 a.m. ET on 08\/01\/2025<\/em>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The red-hot Manny Machado headlines Friday&#8217;s MLB home run picks. Today&#8217;s MLB HR narrative: Machado closed out July on a monster eight-game hit streak, and has solid value to go deep off lefty Matthew Liberatore at Petco Park tonight. Elsewhere, I&#8217;m targeting Luis Robert Jr. against another struggling southpaw. Check out the best MLB home [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":360475,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[60],"tags":[130],"class_list":["post-360466","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb","tag-mlb"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>MLB home run picks Aug. 1: Best bets, predictions &amp; odds | NSB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our best MLB home run picks for August 1, 2025. 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