{"id":360409,"date":"2025-08-01T10:20:58","date_gmt":"2025-08-01T14:20:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=360409"},"modified":"2025-08-01T10:20:59","modified_gmt":"2025-08-01T14:20:59","slug":"royals-vs-blue-jays-best-bets-aug-1-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/royals-vs-blue-jays-best-bets-aug-1-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Royals vs. Blue Jays best bets Aug. 1: Back Guerrero, Barger to rake on Friday"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Toronto Blue Jays begin August with a three-game homestand against the Kansas City Royals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The pregame narrative:<\/strong> Both teams were active during Thursday&#8217;s trade deadline, bolstering already strong rosters for a postseason push. Toronto added a pair of high-leverage relievers and is favoured to win the series opener behind Kevin Gausman, who pitches opposite Michael Wacha.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Check out my Blue Jays best bets vs. the Royals for Aug. 1, featuring <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/vladimir_guerrero_jr\/batting-stats\">Vladimir Guerrero Jr.<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/addison_barger\/batting-stats\">Addison Barger<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Blue Jays best bets vs. Royals<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Best bet: Guerrero over 1.5 total bases (+108)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Last year, Guerrero went from a good to a great bat following the all-star break. And the early results indicate we&#8217;re in for a repeat this season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Pre ASG:<\/strong> .277\/.384\/.434 splits, 12 HR in 94 games<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Post ASG:<\/strong> .407\/.500\/.667 spits, 3 HR in 14 games<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It&#8217;s not a massive sample, but I want to ride the hot hand in what should be a getable matchup.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Wacha has stark home\/away splits (2.63 ERA at home, 4.53 on the road), and ranks in the bottom-third percentiles for K rate (18.4%) and whiff rate (23.0%). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">He also doesn&#8217;t walk many batters, which tells me Guerrero should be able to put bat on ball.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Guerrero is just 2-for-13 against Wacha with a pair of doubles. But he has a much better .446 xBA in those at-bats with a monster .900 xSLG. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The righty has a six-pitch mix but mainly relies on a 4-seamer\/changeup combo. Guerrero \u2014 who owns a 90th percentile hard-hit rate \u2014 has hit both of those offerings well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> Guerrero is slugging .529 SLG vs. 4-seamers and .455 against changeups from RHP this year. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"cacheembed:116500\">Embed: #116500<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li class=\"insights\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/sports-hub\/baseball\/mlb?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=sportsbook_mlb\">Full MLB betting markets<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"insights\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-injury-report?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=injury_reports\">MLB injury report<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"insights\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/top-players\/hitting\/OPS-on-base_plus_slugging?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=stats_pages\">MLB stats &amp; standings<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Quick pick<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Barger over 0.5 RBI (+143):<\/strong> Barger is hitting fifth behind Nathan Lukes, George Springer, Guerrero and Bo Bichette \u2014 that&#8217;s a great spot for run production. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I&#8217;ve already talked about Guerrero, so let&#8217;s look at the other three. Lukes has a .346 OBP against righties and Springer and Bichette are a combined 11-for-30 against Wacha.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Barger has never seen Wacha before, but he&#8217;s crushed righties and rakes at home.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Vs. RHP:<\/strong> .277\/.332\/.537 slash line<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>At home:<\/strong> .288\/.346\/.541 slash line<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The third baseman has 10 RBI since the all-star break. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Blue Jays F5 -0.5 (-112):<\/strong> I think Wacha is in trouble, but don&#8217;t feel the same way about Gausman.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Toronto&#8217;s righty is finding his form at the perfect time with a 1.96 ERA across his last six starts. He has given up just five hits and one run while striking out 18 in his last two starts (13.0 IP). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And those outings were against the Detroit Tigers and New York Yankees, who rank sixth and third in runs per game.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Royals score the third-fewest runs per game (3.81), and Gausman has dominated them since joining the Blue Jays, with a 1.01 ERA in four starts. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Blue Jays best bets made at 9:26 a.m. ET on 08\/01\/2025.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Toronto Blue Jays begin August with a three-game homestand against the Kansas City Royals. The pregame narrative: Both teams were active during Thursday&#8217;s trade deadline, bolstering already strong rosters for a postseason push. Toronto added a pair of high-leverage relievers and is favoured to win the series opener behind Kevin Gausman, who pitches opposite [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":360426,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[60],"tags":[130],"class_list":["post-360409","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb","tag-mlb"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Blue Jays best bets vs. Royals: Aug. 1 MLB betting | NSB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our Royals vs. Blue Jays best bets for Aug. 1, 2025. 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