{"id":360273,"date":"2025-07-31T09:32:55","date_gmt":"2025-07-31T13:32:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=360273"},"modified":"2025-07-31T09:32:55","modified_gmt":"2025-07-31T13:32:55","slug":"mlb-home-run-picks-and-predictions-july-31-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mlb-home-run-picks-and-predictions-july-31-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"MLB home run picks July 31: Look for De La Cruz to snap HR drought at home"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/elly_de_la_cruz\/batting-stats\">Elly De La Cruz<\/a> hasn&#8217;t homered in a while, but some factors are working in his favour on Thursday night.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Today&#8217;s MLB HR narrative:<\/strong> De La Cruz is still swinging a productive bat, and tonight he&#8217;ll be up against a pitcher that routinely gives up loud contact. Earlier in the day \u2014 i.e., before the trade deadline passes \u2014 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/brandon_lowe\/batting-stats\">Brandon Lowe<\/a> is a worthy home run candidate in the Bronx.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for July 31.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">MLB home run picks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Best bet: <strong><strong>De La Cruz to hit a home run (+300)<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>De La Cruz is on a 29-game home run drought, but it&#8217;s not like he&#8217;s bottomed out offensively in that span.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The towering shortstop still has a respectable .804 OPS during the drought. For context, this season&#8217;s league-average OPS is .718.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I like tonight&#8217;s opportunity for De La Cruz, who has done his best work at home \u2014 and from the left side of the plate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Though he&#8217;s a switch hitter, De La Cruz&#8217;s .303\/.396\/.534 slash line from the left is notably higher than the alternative (.241\/.288\/.380 from the right side).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At Cincinnati&#8217;s Great American Ball Park, De La Cruz is slugging .500. It helps knowing that GABP is the second-friendliest HR park for hitters on both sides of the plate, per Baseball Savant&#8217;s park factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The final aspect of this equation is the opposing starter, Carlos Carrasco. Well past his prime at this point, Carrasco has some brutal batted ball metrics:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>6th-percentile barrel rate<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>7th-percentile xBA<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>9th-percentile average exit velocity<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>15th-percentile xERA<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Left-hitting players are batting .354 with a .521 SLG off Carrasco&#8217;s two fastball offerings (four-seam, sinker). I&#8217;m hoping De La Cruz hunts a fastball and smashes one into the seats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> Despite his HR drought, De La Cruz still leads the Reds in homers (18) and is on pace for a career-high 26 HRs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"cacheembed:116447\">Embed: #116447<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/sports-hub\/baseball\/mlb?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=sportsbook_mlb\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>Full MLB betting markets<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-injury-report?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=injury_reports\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>MLB injury report<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/top-players\/hitting\/OPS-on-base_plus_slugging?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=stats_pages\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>MLB stats &amp; standings<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Best HR predictions<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Lowe to hit a home run (+375):<\/strong> Yankee Stadium, like GABP, is among the friendliest HR parks in the sport. That&#8217;s a good place to start.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It&#8217;s also worth noting that left-hitting players have torched New York starter Marcus Stroman this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In eight outings (84 at-bats), Stroman has allowed five HRs and a .560 SLG to LHHs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Lowe is 4-for-16 with a home run off Stroman in the past. That&#8217;s nothing flashy, but at least he&#8217;s familiar in this matchup and has gone deep before.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Also, in his past 20 games overall, Lowe has homered six times while slugging .600. So he enters today&#8217;s matinee in encouraging form.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>MLB home run picks made at 9:08 a.m. ET on 07\/31\/2025<\/em>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Elly De La Cruz hasn&#8217;t homered in a while, but some factors are working in his favour on Thursday night. Today&#8217;s MLB HR narrative: De La Cruz is still swinging a productive bat, and tonight he&#8217;ll be up against a pitcher that routinely gives up loud contact. Earlier in the day \u2014 i.e., before the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":360280,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[60],"tags":[10],"class_list":["post-360273","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb","tag-mlb-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>MLB home run picks July 31: Best bets, predictions &amp; odds | NSB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our best MLB home run picks for July 31, 2025. 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