{"id":359983,"date":"2025-07-29T12:17:57","date_gmt":"2025-07-29T16:17:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=359983"},"modified":"2025-07-29T13:17:25","modified_gmt":"2025-07-29T17:17:25","slug":"mlb-home-run-picks-and-predictions-july-29-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mlb-home-run-picks-and-predictions-july-29-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"MLB home run picks July 29: Back Josh Naylor, Teoscar Hernandez on Tuesday"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/josh_naylor\/batting-stats\">Josh Naylor<\/a> headlines Tuesday&#8217;s MLB home run picks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Today&#8217;s MLB HR narrative:<\/strong> The Canadian hit his first home run as a Seattle Mariner last night and has great value to go deep again in the homer-friendly confines of Sutter Health Park. Elsewhere, I&#8217;m targeting <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/teoscar_hernandez\/batting-stats\">Teoscar Hernandez<\/a> in a plus matchup. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for July 29.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">MLB home run picks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Best bet: <strong><strong>Naylor to hit a home run (+450)<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Seattle needed a lefty bat that could mash, and Naylor fit the bill. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Canadian has flirted with the 30 home run milestone in each of the last four seasons, hitting a career high 31 bombs in 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Naylor slashed .292\/.360\/.447 in 93 games with the Arizona Diamondbacks, and is off to a hot start with the Mariners, going 5-for-15 (.333) with a home run. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tonight, the Mariners take on Luis Severino and the Athletics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Severino has a 6.68 ERA and 1.1 HR\/9 at home.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The righty also has a 13th percentile K rate and 11th percentile hard-hit rate, per Baseball Savant.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Sutter Health Park, the Athletics&#8217; temporary home venue, is the eighth-most homer-friendly park in MLB this year. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> Naylor does serious damage against righty arms, slugging .481 with nine of his 12 home runs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"cacheembed:116388\">Embed: #116388<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/sports-hub\/baseball\/mlb?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=sportsbook_mlb\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>Full MLB betting markets<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-injury-report?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=injury_reports\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>MLB injury report<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/top-players\/hitting\/OPS-on-base_plus_slugging?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=stats_pages\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>MLB stats &amp; standings<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Best HR predictions<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Hernandez to hit a home run (+310):<\/strong> This is the perfect storm for Hernandez to launch one.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The ball flies at Great American Ball Park for right-hitting batters, with 21% more home runs than the league average of the last three seasons. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Hernandez has been on a tear over his last five games, going 7-for-19 (.360 batting average) with two home runs. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Now, he gets to go up against Nick Lodolo, who has a stellar 3.08 ERA, but is homer-prone. The lefty has given up nine home runs in his last nine starts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Hernandez is slugging .672 against LHP this year with six home runs in 67 at-bats. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>MLB home run picks made at 11:28 a.m. ET on 07\/29\/2025<\/em>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Josh Naylor headlines Tuesday&#8217;s MLB home run picks. Today&#8217;s MLB HR narrative: The Canadian hit his first home run as a Seattle Mariner last night and has great value to go deep again in the homer-friendly confines of Sutter Health Park. Elsewhere, I&#8217;m targeting Teoscar Hernandez in a plus matchup. Check out the best MLB [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":360023,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[60],"tags":[130],"class_list":["post-359983","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb","tag-mlb"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>MLB home run picks July 29: Best bets, predictions &amp; odds | NSB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our best MLB home run picks for July 29, 2025. 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