{"id":359835,"date":"2025-07-28T15:13:35","date_gmt":"2025-07-28T19:13:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=359835"},"modified":"2025-07-28T15:13:36","modified_gmt":"2025-07-28T19:13:36","slug":"mlb-home-run-picks-and-predictions-july-28-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mlb-home-run-picks-and-predictions-july-28-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"MLB home run picks July 28: Garcia draws Grade-A matchup vs. Angels&#8217; Kochanowicz"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Two late-night matchups feature some MLB home run picks I&#8217;m keen on for Monday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Today&#8217;s MLB HR narrative:<\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/adolis_garcia\/batting-stats\">Adolis Garcia<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/randy_arozarena\/batting-stats\">Randy Arozarena<\/a> are both playing on the West Coast tonight, and there are reasons to expect them to mash. With Garcia in particular, the pitching matchup really fits a profile that he tends to do damage against.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for July 28, including analysis on Miami&#8217;s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/kyle_stowers\/batting-stats\">Kyle Stowers<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">MLB home run picks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Best bet: <strong><strong>Garcia to hit a home run (+410)<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We may never see Garcia replicate his 39-homer season from 2023, but he&#8217;s still quite capable of demolishing the ball.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Garcia, who&#8217;s on a 21-homer pace this year, ranks in the 91st percentile in average exit velocity (92.6 mph), per Baseball Savant. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>He&#8217;s also in the 81st percentile in barrel rate (13.1%) and the 77th percentile in hard-hit rate (48.2%).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>The outfielder&#8217;s main issue is striking out. He&#8217;s in the bottom-10th percentile in chase and whiff rates, leading to a 26.0% K rate (30th-highest among 155 qualified hitters).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On the bright side, tonight&#8217;s opposing starter, Jack Kochanowicz, hardly strikes anyone out. His 15.6 K% ranks in the sixth percentile among pitchers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Kochanowicz makes his hay with ground balls. Interestingly enough, his 90th-percentile ground ball rate (53.6%) is almost identical to his sinker usage vs. right-hitting players (53.7%).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With a greatly reduced threat of striking out, I think Garcia is a great fit to do damage in this matchup. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>After all, he&#8217;s crushing sinkers from righty pitchers this year: 17-for-51 (.333) with four HRs and an .828 xSLG.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> Garcia is 3-for-6 with two home runs vs. Kochanowicz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"cacheembed:116363\">Embed: #116363<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/sports-hub\/baseball\/mlb?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=sportsbook_mlb\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>Full MLB betting markets<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-injury-report?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=injury_reports\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>MLB injury report<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/top-players\/hitting\/OPS-on-base_plus_slugging?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=stats_pages\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>MLB stats &amp; standings<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Best HR predictions<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><strong>Arozarena to hit a home run (+295)<\/strong><\/strong>: Against a lefty in a homer-friendly park is exactly the time to back Arozarena to go deep.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He&#8217;s also on fire right now, so that helps, too.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The outfielder is slugging .547 vs. lefties this year (and .524 in his career).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>In his past 25 games, he has a .287\/.358\/.702 slash line with 12 HRs<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Tonight&#8217;s Mariners vs. A&#8217;s game will take place at Sutter Health Park is the No. 2 scoring environment and the No. 8 HR environment, per Baseball Savant&#8217;s park factors.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>A&#8217;s southpaw JP Sears has allowed 13 homers in just 43.1 innings this year, which would be a 54-homer pace extrapolated over 180.0 innings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For context, no pitcher allowed more than 34 homers over last year&#8217;s full campaign.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Stowers to hit a home run (+540):<\/strong> At this price, count me in on one of July&#8217;s hottest hitters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Stowers is second in MLB this month with a 250 wRC+, and he&#8217;s tied for third in HRs (10). It&#8217;s been a laser show for the 27-year-old.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Though he never found his footing with the Orioles, Stowers is now showing why he was once a second-round draftee back in 2019. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Miami outfielder ranks in the 97th percentile in xSLG (.575), which is only two points north of his actual mark.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He&#8217;ll have a platoon advantage against St. Louis righty Andre Pallante, too. Stowers has a .627 SLG vs. RHPs this season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>MLB home run picks made at 1:27 p.m. ET on 07\/28\/2025<\/em>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Two late-night matchups feature some MLB home run picks I&#8217;m keen on for Monday. Today&#8217;s MLB HR narrative: Adolis Garcia and Randy Arozarena are both playing on the West Coast tonight, and there are reasons to expect them to mash. With Garcia in particular, the pitching matchup really fits a profile that he tends to [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":359917,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[60],"tags":[10],"class_list":["post-359835","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb","tag-mlb-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>MLB home run picks July 28: Best bets, predictions &amp; odds | NSB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our best MLB home run picks for July 28, 2025. 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