{"id":359816,"date":"2025-07-28T10:07:58","date_gmt":"2025-07-28T14:07:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=359816"},"modified":"2025-07-28T10:07:58","modified_gmt":"2025-07-28T14:07:58","slug":"blue-jays-best-bets-vs-orioles-july-28","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/blue-jays-best-bets-vs-orioles-july-28\/","title":{"rendered":"Blue Jays vs. Orioles best bets July 28: Bet the over, look for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to score"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Fresh off another series win, the Toronto Blue Jays head to Baltimore to begin a four-game set against the Orioles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The pregame narrative:<\/strong> Toronto&#8217;s 8-2 start to the second half has vaulted the team to the top of the MLB standings. Baltimore, meanwhile, is far closer to the league basement than anyone could&#8217;ve expected. But the O&#8217;s offence is coming around, and Monday&#8217;s 9.5-run projected total reflects that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Check out my Blue Jays best bets vs. the Orioles for July 28, featuring props on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Ryan O&#8217;Hearn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Blue Jays best bets vs. Orioles<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/sports\/baseball\/competitions\/10065\"><strong>Full MLB betting markets<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-injury-report\"><strong>MLB injury report<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/top-players\/hitting\/OPS-on-base_plus_slugging\"><strong>MLB player stats<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/standings\/division\"><strong>MLB standings<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Best bet: Guerrero over 0.5 runs (-110)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Remember Guerrero&#8217;s second-half power surge from last season? Well, it&#8217;s happening again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Entering the all-star break in 2024, Guerrero had an .818 OPS before exploding for an 1.127 OPS down the stretch.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The franchise player also entered this year&#8217;s break with an .818 OPS &#8230; and he&#8217;s posted an 1.175 OPS in 10 games since.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It&#8217;s a tiny sample, but we did just see this story unfold last year. Also, Guerrero ranks in the 100th percentile in expected batting average (.319), per Baseball Savant, so it&#8217;s not like he&#8217;s fluked his way into being an elite hitter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With that 100th-percentile xBA comes a 93rd-percentile walk rate (13.5%). I&#8217;m never sure exactly how Guerrero is going to get on base, but he often finds a way.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And as long as he gets on base, he&#8217;ll be a threat to score. Especially with how the Blue Jays&#8217; lineup has been humming since the all-star break:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>1st in wRC+ (142)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>1st in BA (.307)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>1st in K% (14.3%)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>3rd in runs\/game (6.1)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Tonight, Toronto will face Baltimore starter Zach Eflin, who has a 7.76 ERA in six starts since the beginning of June. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Elfin also has a 5.22 ERA in five outings vs. Toronto since the start of last year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> Guerrero has scored 11 runs in his past eight games, going 7-1 vs. this prop in that span. He reached base at least twice in each of those games, too.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Quick pick<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Over 9.5 runs (-106):<\/strong> The Jays have had MLB&#8217;s best offence coming out of the break, but the O&#8217;s aren&#8217;t too far behind.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In 10 second-half games, Baltimore ranks ninth in wRC+ (111) while averaging the sixth-most runs (5.1\/game).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Through six matchups this season, the average total in this head-to-head matchup is 10.7 runs (and this over is 4-2 in those games).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Also, Eflin isn&#8217;t the only starter in this game with a checkered past against his opposing lineup.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bassitt has made five starts vs. Baltimore since joining the Jays in 2023, and he has a 6.92 ERA against them. The current O&#8217;s lineup has a .515 SLG vs. Bassitt in 97 at-bats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>O&#8217;Hearn over 1.5 total bases (+145):<\/strong> O&#8217;Hearn fares well against right-handed pitching, and he knows a thing or two about how to attack Bassitt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The first baseman is 7-for-13 vs. Bassitt with a home run and a double. He reached base in all three plate appearances against Bassitt when Toronto faced Baltimore on March 30 (single, double, walk).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bassitt&#8217;s opponent SLG is notably higher vs. left-hitting players (.468) compared to right-hitting players (.362).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>O&#8217;Hearn is deployed almost exclusively with a platoon advantage, and it makes sense. He has a .586 OPS vs. LHPs and an .875 OPS vs. RHPs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Blue Jays best bets made at 10:10 a.m. ET on 07\/28\/2025.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Fresh off another series win, the Toronto Blue Jays head to Baltimore to begin a four-game set against the Orioles. The pregame narrative: Toronto&#8217;s 8-2 start to the second half has vaulted the team to the top of the MLB standings. Baltimore, meanwhile, is far closer to the league basement than anyone could&#8217;ve expected. But [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":359810,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[452,60],"tags":[10],"class_list":["post-359816","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-com","category-mlb","tag-mlb-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Blue Jays best bets vs. Orioles: July 28 MLB betting | NSB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our Blue Jays best bets vs. Orioles for July 28, 2025. 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