{"id":359589,"date":"2025-07-25T12:15:42","date_gmt":"2025-07-25T16:15:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=359589"},"modified":"2025-07-25T12:15:42","modified_gmt":"2025-07-25T16:15:42","slug":"mlb-home-run-picks-and-predictions-july-25","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mlb-home-run-picks-and-predictions-july-25\/","title":{"rendered":"MLB home run picks July 25: Bet on Jo Adell and Cody Bellinger to go deep"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Let&#8217;s make it three days in a row where at least one of our staff&#8217;s MLB home run picks comes through.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Today&#8217;s MLB HR narrative:<\/strong> Last night, Manny Machado cashed a +480 HR pick for me in St. Louis. On Friday night, both Jo Adell and Cody Bellinger look like promising options \u2014 but for varying reasons.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for July 25.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">MLB home run picks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/sports\/baseball\/competitions\/10065\"><strong>Full MLB betting markets<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-injury-report\"><strong>MLB injury report<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/top-players\/hitting\/OPS-on-base_plus_slugging\"><strong>MLB player stats<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/standings\/division\"><strong>MLB standings<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Best bet: <strong><strong>Adell to hit a home run (+350)<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Adell is ice cold right now. There&#8217;s no way to sugarcoat that. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Over his past 11 games, the outfielder is batting .156 with 18 strikeouts and two home runs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Adell swings really hard (99th-percentile bat speed, per Baseball Savant), and he misses a lot. But when he runs into one, it goes a mile.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He ranks in the 85th percentile or better in xBA, xSLG, barrel rate and hard-hit rate. The standout metric is his .574 xSLG, which ranks in the 97th percentile.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For a home run prop, you just need the stars to align on one pitch in one at-bat. Adell has the tools to put that together.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I also like the fact that tonight&#8217;s matchup against the Mariners will take place at Angel Stadium, which is the fourth-friendliest HR park for right-hitting players.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There are 18% more homers than average for RHHs in Anaheim.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Seattle&#8217;s Bryan Woo will be on the mound tonight, and his 94th-percentile walk rate heightens the chances of Adell putting something in play.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Also, Adell is 3-for-3 in his career vs. Woo with two home runs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> Adell is tied for 17th in MLB with 21 homers, which is already a career-high total. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Best HR predictions<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><strong>Bellinger to hit a home run (+295)<\/strong><\/strong>: Bellinger is enjoying a banner month, and I&#8217;m hoping to cash in.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Aaron Judge was the first Yankee I looked at tonight, naturally, but his +155 HR price didn&#8217;t speak to me the way Bellinger&#8217;s price does.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Not that I&#8217;d compare the two as home run hitters, but Bellinger has put on quite a power display recently. He has a .347\/.356\/.667 slash line in July, homering five times in his past eight games.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bellinger does his best work at Yankee Stadium, where left-handed batters hit 23% more home runs than average.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The first-year Yankee is slugging .579 at home, and that&#8217;s where he&#8217;s hit 12 of his 18 HRs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bellinger doesn&#8217;t have the best numbers against Phillies starter Taijuan Walker (6-for-22, .409 SLG). But he has homered once in this matchup, and the volume of at-bats is solid.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>MLB home run picks made at 12:09 p.m. ET on 07\/25\/2025<\/em>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Let&#8217;s make it three days in a row where at least one of our staff&#8217;s MLB home run picks comes through. Today&#8217;s MLB HR narrative: Last night, Manny Machado cashed a +480 HR pick for me in St. Louis. On Friday night, both Jo Adell and Cody Bellinger look like promising options \u2014 but for [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":359561,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[452,60],"tags":[10],"class_list":["post-359589","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-com","category-mlb","tag-mlb-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>MLB home run picks July 25: Best bets, predictions &amp; odds | NSB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our best MLB home run picks for July 25, 2025. 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