{"id":359406,"date":"2025-07-24T12:40:10","date_gmt":"2025-07-24T16:40:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=359406"},"modified":"2025-07-24T12:40:17","modified_gmt":"2025-07-24T16:40:17","slug":"mlb-home-run-picks-and-predictions-july-24","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mlb-home-run-picks-and-predictions-july-24\/","title":{"rendered":"MLB home run picks July 24: Raleigh, Machado can both make noise on the road"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

My colleague Avery Perri cashed both his MLB home run picks yesterday (Bryce Harper, Junior Caminero), so I have big shoes to fill.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Today’s MLB HR narrative:<\/strong> Cal Raleigh is MLB’s home run leader, and that has a lot to do with how much he’s punishing lefty pitchers. Elsewhere, Manny Machado is swinging a white-hot bat and deserves a look at much longer odds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for July 24.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

MLB home run picks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Best bet: Raleigh to hit a home run (+185)<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Raleigh is a home run machine, which makes this fairly modest price palatable to me. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The MLB Home Run Derby champ has 39 homers, which is two clear of the field. He clubbed his latest HR on Tuesday night before taking a rest day on Wednesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tonight’s matchup has some good and bad news for Raleigh.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The bad news is that Yusei Kikuchi (4-6, 3.13 ERA) is having an excellent year for the Angels. The lefty’s 1.1 HR\/9 is the lowest of his six seasons with 20-plus starts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The good news is that Kikuchi still seems fairly homer-prone, allowing a 28.0% fly ball rate and a 91.3 mph average exit velocity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That FB% is above league average (23.9%), and that average exit velo ranks in the sixth percentile.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Also, according to Baseball Savant, Angel Stadium is the fourth-friendliest HR park for right-hitting players. There are 19% more homers than average for RHHs in Anaheim.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Raleigh hits well from both sides of the plate, but he’s particularly destructive vs. southpaws. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

And with 13 homers in his past 29 games, there’s a solid chance he goes yard tonight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Key stat:<\/strong> Raleigh is slugging .807 vs. LHPs this year, with 16 home runs in just 117 plate appearances.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Best HR predictions<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Machado to hit a home run (+400)<\/strong><\/strong>: The Fourth of July is known for its fireworks south of the border, and that also happens to be the time when Machado really started popping off at the plate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From July 4 onward, Machado has a .557 SLG and five home runs in 16 games. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

And really, the damage could’ve been a lot more explosive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Baseball Savant has Machado at a .685 xSLG in that span. His 64.6% hard-hit rate in that time is better than any player’s season-long mark.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

All of this is to say, Machado is destroying the baseball. St. Louis’ Busch Stadium isn’t a HR-friendly park, but that’s fine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Machado is 11-for-32 (.344) with two home runs and a .594 SLG vs. Cardinals starter Sonny Gray.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

MLB home run picks made at 12:29 p.m. ET on 07\/24\/2025<\/em>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

My colleague Avery Perri cashed both his MLB home run picks yesterday (Bryce Harper, Junior Caminero), so I have big shoes to fill. Today’s MLB HR narrative: Cal Raleigh is MLB’s home run leader, and that has a lot to do with how much he’s punishing lefty pitchers. Elsewhere, Manny Machado is swinging a white-hot […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":359378,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[452,60],"tags":[10],"class_list":["post-359406","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-com","category-mlb","tag-mlb-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nMLB home run picks July 24: Best bets, predictions & odds | NSB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our best MLB home run picks for July 24, 2025. 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