{"id":359141,"date":"2025-07-23T14:26:19","date_gmt":"2025-07-23T18:26:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=359141"},"modified":"2025-07-23T14:26:20","modified_gmt":"2025-07-23T18:26:20","slug":"mlb-home-run-picks-and-predictions-july-23-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mlb-home-run-picks-and-predictions-july-23-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"MLB home run picks July 23: Back Junior Caminero and Bryce Harper"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/junior_caminero\/batting-stats\">Junior Caminero<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/bryce_harper\/batting-stats\">Bryce Harper<\/a> are Wednesday&#8217;s featured MLB home run picks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Today&#8217;s MLB HR narrative:<\/strong> Caminero is having a breakout season with the Tampa Bay Rays and has a favourable matchup at home tonight. Elsewhere, look for Harper to keep rolling after a great start to the second half.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for July 23.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">MLB home run picks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Best bet: <strong><strong>Caminero to hit a home run (+350)<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Caminero is probably hoping the Rays stay at George M. Steinbrenner Field for as long as possible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Caminero has a .324\/.360\/.615 slash line at George M. Steinbrenner Field over 56 games.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>16 of his 25 home runs have been hit at Tampa&#8217;s temporary home venue.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>According to Baseball Savant&#8217;s park factors, George M. Steinbrenner Field is the second-most HR-friendly venue for right-hitting batters (39% more HRs than average).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Today, Caminero and the Rays host Jonathan Cannon (4.18 ERA) and the Chicago White Sox. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Cannon has given up six home runs in his last six starts and ranks in the bottom-20th percentile in xERA, xBA, whiff rate, K rate, and hard-hit rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Caminero hasn&#8217;t hit a home run since the all-star break, but he&#8217;s 8-for-20 during the Rays&#8217; current homestand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">He&#8217;s seeing the ball well and should get a few solid looks against a low-quality arm. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> Caminero runs reverse splits, meaning his slugging percentage against righties (.533) is higher than his slugging percentage against lefties (.456). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"cacheembed:116211\">Embed: #116211<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/sports-hub\/baseball\/mlb?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=sportsbook_mlb\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>Full MLB betting markets<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-injury-report?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=injury_reports\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>MLB injury report<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/top-players\/hitting\/OPS-on-base_plus_slugging?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=stats_pages\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>MLB stats &amp; standings<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Best HR predictions<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><strong>Harper to hit a home run (+230)<\/strong><\/strong>: Harper, much like Caminero, is on a tear coming out of the all-star break.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In five games, the two-time MVP is 8-for-19 with four doubles and three home runs. That nets out to an absurd .421\/.476\/1.105 slash line.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Lucas Giolito toes the rubber for the Boston Red Sox at Citizens Bank Park tonight, and the righty profiles as a solid matchup.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Giolito doesn&#8217;t walk many batters (7.2% BB rate, 70th percentile) and gives up lots of hard contact (44.0% hard-hit rate, 24th percentile) with a low strikeout rate (21.9% K rate, 45th percentile). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Harper should have plenty of pitches to hit tonight, and he&#8217;s already 1-for-3 with a home run off Giolito.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>MLB home run picks made at 1:49 p.m. ET on 07\/23\/2025<\/em>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Junior Caminero and Bryce Harper are Wednesday&#8217;s featured MLB home run picks. Today&#8217;s MLB HR narrative: Caminero is having a breakout season with the Tampa Bay Rays and has a favourable matchup at home tonight. Elsewhere, look for Harper to keep rolling after a great start to the second half. Check out the best MLB [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":359152,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[60],"tags":[130],"class_list":["post-359141","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb","tag-mlb"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>MLB home run picks July 23: Best bets, predictions &amp; odds | NSB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our best MLB home run picks for July 23, 2025. 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