{"id":359034,"date":"2025-07-22T12:00:40","date_gmt":"2025-07-22T16:00:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=359034"},"modified":"2025-07-22T12:00:41","modified_gmt":"2025-07-22T16:00:41","slug":"mlb-home-run-picks-and-predictions-july-22","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mlb-home-run-picks-and-predictions-july-22\/","title":{"rendered":"MLB home run picks July 22: Target Suzuki, McMahon and a +500 long shot"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Tuesday&#8217;s MLB home run picks include Seiya Suzuki as the headliner and a +500 long shot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Today&#8217;s MLB HR narrative:<\/strong> Suzuki has been a menace against left-handed pitching, and I think he&#8217;ll have a field day against a shaky southpaw tonight. Elsewhere in MLB, look for Ryan McMahon and Yoan Moncada to make noise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for July 22. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">MLB home run picks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Best bet: <strong><strong>Suzuki to hit a home run (+290)<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Rich Hill is a baseball treasure, but I also think he&#8217;s worth targeting on Tuesday night in the Windy City.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The 45-year-old lefty will make his 2025 season debut for the Kansas City Royals after grinding out 11 starts in the minors. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He&#8217;d only made seven minor-league starts <em>combined<\/em> from 2016-24, so his extended stay this year sticks out. It&#8217;s a reminder that he really had to prove he was capable of returning to the top level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But &#8230; did he prove that?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>After two outings in rookie ball, Hill moved up to Triple-A Omaha and had some uninspiring results:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>9 starts<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>9 HRs<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>5.36 ERA<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>.264 opponent BA<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>His 1.92 HR\/9 in Triple-A is higher than any of the 61 qualified MLB pitchers this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The soft-tossing southpaw should be a nice matchup for Suzuki, who has crushed lefties this year. He has a 150 wRC+ vs. LHPs, which ranks 18th in MLB.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Suzuki is also tied for sixth in MLB in home runs (26), so he knows a thing or two about going yard.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> In his past 24 games, Suzuki has eight HRs and a .600 SLG.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/sports\/baseball\/competitions\/10065\"><strong>Full MLB betting markets<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-injury-report\"><strong>MLB injury report<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/top-players\/hitting\/OPS-on-base_plus_slugging\"><strong>MLB player stats<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/standings\/division\"><strong>MLB standings<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Best HR predictions<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><strong>McMahon to hit a home run (+320)<\/strong><\/strong>: McMahon is a three-true-outcome hitter, with lots of pop, walks and whiffs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>3rd-percentile strikeout rate (31.6%)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>86th-percentile walk rate (12.0%)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>97th-percentile exit velocity (93.8 mph)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Tonight, he&#8217;ll face a pitcher in Erick Fedde who ranks in the bottom 10th percentile in xERA, xBA, K rate and whiff rate, per Baseball Savant. So I don&#8217;t expect McMahon to be fooled much.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The left-hitting infielder will have a platoon advantage, and he&#8217;s playing in the ultra-hitter-friendly Coors Field.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So far this season, 10 of McMahon&#8217;s 15 homers have come at Coors \u2014 including a pair of HRs in four games since the all-star break.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><strong>Moncada to hit a home run (+500)<\/strong><\/strong>: Moncada never reached the heights that were expected of him with the White Sox, but maybe his time with the Angels will be a rebirth for his career.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The 30-year-old has eight homers and a .500 SLG in 38 games (35 starts) for L.A. He&#8217;s homered in two of his past five.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As a switch-hitter, Moncada will bat from the left side tonight against right-hander Frankie Montas. New York&#8217;s Citi Field allows 19% more homers to left-hitting players than average, per Baseball Savant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Montas (2-1, 5.03 ERA) has been hit hard through four starts. He&#8217;s allowed four HRs and a .487 SLG.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>MLB home run picks made at 11:54 a.m. ET on 07\/22\/2025<\/em>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Tuesday&#8217;s MLB home run picks include Seiya Suzuki as the headliner and a +500 long shot. Today&#8217;s MLB HR narrative: Suzuki has been a menace against left-handed pitching, and I think he&#8217;ll have a field day against a shaky southpaw tonight. Elsewhere in MLB, look for Ryan McMahon and Yoan Moncada to make noise. Check [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":359025,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[452,60],"tags":[10],"class_list":["post-359034","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-com","category-mlb","tag-mlb-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>MLB home run picks July 22: Best bets, predictions &amp; odds | NSB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our best MLB home run picks for July 22, 2025. 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