{"id":358916,"date":"2025-07-21T14:40:13","date_gmt":"2025-07-21T18:40:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=358916"},"modified":"2025-07-21T14:40:14","modified_gmt":"2025-07-21T18:40:14","slug":"mlb-home-run-picks-and-predictions-july-21-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mlb-home-run-picks-and-predictions-july-21-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"MLB home run picks July 21: Back Eugenio Suarez, Jose Altuve to go deep in Arizona"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Two of Monday&#8217;s three MLB home run picks come from the same game, when the Arizona Diamondbacks host the Houston Astros. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Today&#8217;s MLB HR narrative:<\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/eugenio_suarez\/batting-stats\">Eugenio Suarez<\/a> is having a monster season at the plate, and has a platoon advantage against Houston&#8217;s Colton Gordon. The same can be said for veteran <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/jose_altuve\/batting-stats\">Jose Altuve<\/a>, who carries juicy +750 odds to go deep.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for July 21, featuring a pick on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/willson_contreras\/batting-stats\">Wilson Contreras<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">MLB home run picks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Best bet: <strong><strong>Suarez to hit a home run (+300)<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This is likely the last week we&#8217;ll see Suarez in a D-Backs uniform, as the third baseman has garnered tons of attention on an expiring contract.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The 34-year-old ranks third in home runs (35) and first in RBI (85) and has been doing damage against right-handed pitching:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Suarez owns a .598 SLG vs. LHP.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>He&#8217;s hit 10 home runs in 83 at-bats (8.3% HR rate). <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>His .398 ISO vs. LHP is the fourth-best in MLB.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I think Suarez has a couple more home runs in him before the trade deadline, and I&#8217;m all over his matchup tonight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Gordon is a contact pitcher through and through. His 98th percentile walk rate (3.4%) and 30th percentile K rate (19.4%) mean Suarez will almost certainly get something to hit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And that&#8217;s great news with the way the righty has been pitching.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Gordon has given up six home runs in his last five starts and has a 7.15 ERA in July. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> Right-hitting batters are slugging .547 against Gordon this year.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"cacheembed:116124\">Embed: #116124<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/sports-hub\/baseball\/mlb?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=sportsbook_mlb\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>Full MLB betting markets<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-injury-report?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=injury_reports\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>MLB injury report<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/top-players\/hitting\/OPS-on-base_plus_slugging?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=stats_pages\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>MLB stats &amp; standings<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Best HR predictions<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><strong>Altuve to hit a home run (+750)<\/strong><\/strong>: These odds seem very generous with the way Altuve is playing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The veteran is batting .373\/.435\/.712 with four home runs in 15 games this month, and now, he has a matchup against the HR-prone Zac Gallen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Gallen&#8217;s 1.6 HR\/9 rate is the seventh-highest among all qualified pitchers. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The righty ranks in the 20th percentile or lower in xERA, average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Like Suarez, Altuve is running reverse splits this season. That means he&#8217;s doing much better in righty-vs-righty matchups (.289 batting average, .825 OPS). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Altuve has also taken Gallen deep before. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><strong>Contreras to hit a home run (+370)<\/strong><\/strong>: I want to capitalize on the thin air at Coors Field, and Contreras fits the bill.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The St. Louis Cardinals first baseman isn&#8217;t a big power bat, but is slugging a respectable .505 vs. LHP this season. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tonight, he goes up against Austin Gomber, who is getting shelled this season. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The southpaw has a 5.65 ERA and has given up a home run in four of his last five starts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Contreras is 2-for-5 against Gomber with a pair of home runs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>MLB home run picks made at 1:34 p.m. ET on 07\/21\/2025<\/em>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Two of Monday&#8217;s three MLB home run picks come from the same game, when the Arizona Diamondbacks host the Houston Astros. Today&#8217;s MLB HR narrative: Eugenio Suarez is having a monster season at the plate, and has a platoon advantage against Houston&#8217;s Colton Gordon. The same can be said for veteran Jose Altuve, who carries [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":358957,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[60],"tags":[130],"class_list":["post-358916","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb","tag-mlb"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>MLB home run picks July 21: Best bets, predictions &amp; odds | NSB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our best MLB home run picks for July 21, 2025. 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