{"id":358885,"date":"2025-07-21T12:33:28","date_gmt":"2025-07-21T16:33:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=358885"},"modified":"2025-07-21T12:33:29","modified_gmt":"2025-07-21T16:33:29","slug":"yankees-vs-blue-jays-picks-july-21","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/yankees-vs-blue-jays-picks-july-21\/","title":{"rendered":"Yankees vs. Blue Jays prop picks July 21: Fade Gausman and back Guerrero on Monday"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Toronto Blue Jays welcome the New York Yankees for a pivotal three-game series beginning Monday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The pregame narrative:<\/strong> Toronto has won a franchise record-tying 10 consecutive home games, which started with a four-game sweep of New York in early July. The Yankees are slight favourites, however, with Carlos Rodon (3.08 ERA) pitching opposite Kevin Gausman (4.19).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Check out my Yankees vs. Blue Jays picks for July 21, featuring Vladimir Guerrero Jr.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Yankees vs. Blue Jays picks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/sports\/baseball\/competitions\/10065\"><strong>Full MLB betting markets<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-injury-report\"><strong>MLB injury report<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/top-players\/hitting\/OPS-on-base_plus_slugging\"><strong>MLB player stats<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/standings\/division\"><strong>MLB standings<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Best Bet: Gausman under 17.5 outs (-108)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Toronto has won plenty of ballgames, but it&#8217;s hard to be confident about any pitcher starting Game 1 of a playoff series \u2014 and Gausman is no exception.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The righty has fallen off considerably from his 2022-2023 form, when he earned Cy Young votes both seasons.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Gausman in 2022-23:<\/strong> 3.25 ERA, 2.68 FIP, 11.1 K\/9, 132 ERA+<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Gausman in 2024-25:<\/strong> 3.96 ERA, 3.81 FIP, 8.2 K\/9, 105 ERA+<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This year, Gausman&#8217;s 4.19 ERA and 3.87 FIP are the highest he&#8217;s logged since 2019, when he played on both the Atlanta Braves and Cincinnati Reds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tonight, he has to go up against a Yankees team averaging 6.4 runs in its last 10 games.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Gausman has faced New York twice this year, and fell under this out total both times. At Yankee Stadium in April, he gave up six earned runs in 2.2 IP (two hits, five walks). And on July 1, he gave up two earned runs in 5.0 IP (six hits, four walks).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Yankees have been disciplined in not chasing Gausman&#8217;s offerings this year, and I expect they&#8217;ll stick to that plan again tonight to drive his pitch count up.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And whether John Schneider wants to admit it or not, games against New York matter more than games against other teams. I expect Gausman to be on a tight leash if his command issues flare up again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> Gausman has gone under this line in five of his last six games.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Quick picks<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Guerrero over 1.5 bases (+110):<\/strong> Last week, my colleague Jordan Horrobin <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/vladimir-guerrero-jr-mlb-midseason-review-and-second-half-outlook\">wrote about Guerrero<\/a> and how he was due to break out in the second half.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I encourage you all to read it, but I will give a quick overview of some key points:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Entering the all-star break, Guerrero&#8217;s actual SLG (.434) was 84 points behind his xSLG (.518).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li> He also owned a 100th percentile xBA (.315), well above his .275 actual batting average. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Last year, Guerrero posted a .376\/.450\/.678 slash line from July 19 (post ASG) through the end of the year.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We&#8217;re only three games into the second half, but I&#8217;m hopeful Guerrero can replicate last year&#8217;s post-all-star-break heater. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On Sunday, Vladdy went 2-for-3 with a home run against southpaw Robbie Ray. Today, he faces another lefty in Rodon, and Guerrero has dominated that matchup.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Blue Jays&#8217; superstar is 9-for-15 with three doubles and a home run against Rodon. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Rodon throws a 4-seam fastball 40% of the time and a slider 31% of the time. Guerrero is batting .435 (.826 SLG) against 4-seamers from LHP and .500 (.625 SLG) against sliders from LHP. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Blue Jays picks made at 9:49 a.m. ET on 07\/21\/2025.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Toronto Blue Jays welcome the New York Yankees for a pivotal three-game series beginning Monday. The pregame narrative: Toronto has won a franchise record-tying 10 consecutive home games, which started with a four-game sweep of New York in early July. The Yankees are slight favourites, however, with Carlos Rodon (3.08 ERA) pitching opposite Kevin [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":358881,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[452,60],"tags":[130],"class_list":["post-358885","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-com","category-mlb","tag-mlb"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Blue Jays picks vs. Yankees: July 21 MLB betting | NSB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our Yankees vs. Blue Jays picks for July 21, 2025. 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