{"id":358802,"date":"2025-07-20T11:34:42","date_gmt":"2025-07-20T15:34:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=358802"},"modified":"2025-07-21T08:18:44","modified_gmt":"2025-07-21T12:18:44","slug":"mlb-home-run-picks-and-predictions-july-20","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mlb-home-run-picks-and-predictions-july-20\/","title":{"rendered":"MLB home run picks July 20: Bet on Aaron Judge, Jackson Chourio to go deep"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Sometimes you have to play the hits. Aaron Judge headlines Sunday&#8217;s MLB home run picks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Today&#8217;s MLB HR narrative:<\/strong> Judge is this generation&#8217;s greatest home run hitter, and he has a favourable matchup \u2014 and a decent price \u2014 against Atlanta&#8217;s Grant Holmes. Later on, Jackson Chourio should be able to take one of the game&#8217;s legends for a ride.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for July 20.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">MLB home run picks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/sports\/baseball\/competitions\/10065\"><strong>Full MLB betting markets<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-injury-report\"><strong>MLB injury report<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/top-players\/hitting\/OPS-on-base_plus_slugging\"><strong>MLB player stats<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/standings\/division\"><strong>MLB standings<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Best bet: <strong><strong>Judge to hit a home run (+200)<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Judge has the AL Triple Crown in sight, leading MLB in average (.353), while ranking second in home runs (35) and RBI (81). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The two-time MVP has a hit in both games since the all-star break, two singles, and today seems like the time for him to take off.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Atlanta&#8217;s Holmes (3.77 ERA) is having a solid season, but he&#8217;s prone to the long ball.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li> Holmes has a 21st percentile barrel rate and a 46th percentile hard-hit rate, per Baseball Savant.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>His 15.2% HR-to-fly-ball ratio is the sixth highest among qualified pitchers.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Holmes relies primarily on a 4-seam\/slider combo, which makes up 70% of his pitch mix. Against RHPs, Judge is slugging .985 against 4-seamers (that&#8217;s not a typo) and .618 against sliders.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Judge is liable to go deep anytime he steps in the box, so I think these +200 odds are actually quite generous.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> Judge ranks in the 100th percentile for xSLG, barrel rate, and average exit velocity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Best HR predictions<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><strong>Chourio to hit a home run (+450)<\/strong><\/strong>: For the second time this month, Chourio and the Milwaukee Brewers see Clayton Kershaw.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The second-year outfielder went 1-for-3 with a single against the southpaw on July 8, and I think he&#8217;s capable of doing much more damage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Kershaw (3.38 ERA) is having a fine season on paper, but his underlying numbers are a little concerning.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>27th percentile xBA (.263)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>14th percentile K rate (16.9)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>14th percentile hard-hit rate (45.5)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Chourio is on a rampage this month, slashing .345 with three home runs and a .937 OPS.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">He draws walks at one of the lowest rates in MLB (4.2%, fifth percentile), so he will surely be looking for something to hit amid this hot streak. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And Chourio has also lit up lefties this year to the tune of a .360\/.388\/.604 slash line.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>MLB home run picks made at 10:57 a.m. ET on 07\/20\/2025<\/em>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Sometimes you have to play the hits. Aaron Judge headlines Sunday&#8217;s MLB home run picks. Today&#8217;s MLB HR narrative: Judge is this generation&#8217;s greatest home run hitter, and he has a favourable matchup \u2014 and a decent price \u2014 against Atlanta&#8217;s Grant Holmes. Later on, Jackson Chourio should be able to take one of the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":358791,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[452,60],"tags":[130],"class_list":["post-358802","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-com","category-mlb","tag-mlb"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>MLB home run picks July 20: Best bets, predictions &amp; odds | NSB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our best MLB home run picks for July 20, 2025. 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