{"id":358597,"date":"2025-07-19T12:04:28","date_gmt":"2025-07-19T16:04:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=358597"},"modified":"2025-07-19T12:17:31","modified_gmt":"2025-07-19T16:17:31","slug":"mlb-home-run-picks-and-predictions-july-19-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mlb-home-run-picks-and-predictions-july-19-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"MLB home run picks July 19: Bet on Mike Trout and Elly De La Cruz to go deep on Saturday"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Two superstars headline Saturday&#8217;s MLB home run picks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Today&#8217;s MLB HR narrative<\/strong>: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/mike_trout\/batting-stats\">Mike Trout<\/a> has won plenty of MVPs, and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/elly_de_la_cruz\/batting-stats\">Elly De La Cruz<\/a> has the tools to join him one day. Trout gets a matchup against a pitcher he&#8217;s dominated before, while De La Cruz has several factors working in his favour against the New York Mets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for July 19.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">MLB home run picks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Best bet: <strong><strong>De La Cruz to hit a home run (+575)<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Today&#8217;s game at Citi Field between the Cincinnati Reds and Mets is projected to have strong 11 mph winds blowing out to centre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That should help De La Cruz capitalize on his platoon advantage against Clay Holmes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>De La Cruz is slashing .307\/.392\/.546 against RHP, hitting 13 of his 18 home runs against them. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Holmes has given up eight of his 11 home runs at home. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The righty&#8217;s 13.1% HR-to-fly-ball rate is the 16th highest in MLB. He also ranks in the 40th percentile or lower in hard-hit rate, K rate, and average exit velocity.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">De La Cruz hasn&#8217;t hit a home run this month, but he&#8217;s been seeing the ball well. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The superstar is posting a .313\/.389\/.417 slash line over 13 games in July, and in June, he hit seven bombs while slashing .344\/.427\/.656.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The levee is going to break sooner or later for De La Cruz, so why not today? <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> De La Cruz&#8217;s OPS vs. RHP (.938) is over 250 points higher than his OPS vs. LHP (.670).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"cacheembed:116056\">Embed: #116056<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/sports-hub\/baseball\/mlb?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=sportsbook_mlb\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>Full MLB betting markets<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-injury-report?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=injury_reports\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>MLB injury report<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/top-players\/hitting\/OPS-on-base_plus_slugging?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=stats_pages\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>MLB stats &amp; standings<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Best HR predictions<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><strong>Trout to hit a home run (+295)<\/strong><\/strong>: Trout is having a pretty poor season by his standards, but the tides have begun to turn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The three-time MVP is slashing .286\/.446\/.592 this month, hitting four home runs in his last nine games. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Speaking of three, that&#8217;s how many times he&#8217;s taken Philadelphia Phillies starter Taijuan Walker deep. All in all, Trout is 11-for-19 against the righty with a 1.158 OPS.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That&#8217;s a good place to start for this wager.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Trout&#8217;s expected stats also suggest he&#8217;s been severely underindexing. He ranks in the 90th percentile or higher in xwOBA, xSLG, barrel rate, hard-hit rate and launch angle sweet spot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Walker, meanwhile, has struggled to miss bats this year and will be on a short leash after being moved from the bullpen to the rotation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Philadelphia&#8217;s bullpen has the eighth-highest ERA in baseball. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>MLB home run picks made at 11:21 a.m. ET on 07\/19\/2025<\/em>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Two superstars headline Saturday&#8217;s MLB home run picks. Today&#8217;s MLB HR narrative: Mike Trout has won plenty of MVPs, and Elly De La Cruz has the tools to join him one day. Trout gets a matchup against a pitcher he&#8217;s dominated before, while De La Cruz has several factors working in his favour against the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":358641,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[60],"tags":[130],"class_list":["post-358597","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb","tag-mlb"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>MLB home run picks July 19: Best bets, predictions &amp; odds | NSB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our best MLB home run picks for July 19, 2025. 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