{"id":358461,"date":"2025-07-19T10:09:07","date_gmt":"2025-07-19T14:09:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=358461"},"modified":"2025-07-19T10:09:08","modified_gmt":"2025-07-19T14:09:08","slug":"mlb-prop-bets-and-predictions-july-19-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mlb-prop-bets-and-predictions-july-19-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Best MLB prop bets July 19: Back Jackson Merrill, Freddy Peralta on Saturday"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/freddy_peralta\/pitching-stats\">Freddy Peralta<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/jackson_merrill\/batting-stats\">Jackson Merrill<\/a> headline Saturday&#8217;s MLB prop bets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" id=\"block-d0873b89-4dfa-47d6-9954-56140c451c77\"><strong>Today&#8217;s MLB props narrative<\/strong>: Peralta is having an excellent season with the Milwaukee Brewers and can earn his team a series win over the Los Angeles Dodgers tonight. Merrill, meanwhile, has an A+ matchup against a southpaw who gets rocked by left-handed bats. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" id=\"block-d0873b89-4dfa-47d6-9954-56140c451c77\">Check out my top MLB prop bets for July 19, featuring a fade on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/kumar_rocker\/pitching-stats\">Kumar Rocker<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"block-22b3784f-32c2-400a-beef-1578a991be49\">MLB prop bets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" id=\"block-0c59b741-4781-48d8-8ffa-d93f8ee90c10\"><strong>Best bet: Peralta over 16.5 outs (-122)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" id=\"block-0c59b741-4781-48d8-8ffa-d93f8ee90c10\">Peralta isn&#8217;t quite in Cy Young contention, but he&#8217;s not that far off.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The 29-year-old ranks top 20 in MLB in ERA (2.66), strikeouts (118), and WHIP (1.06). <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>His advanced metrics are also excellent. Peralta ranks in the 70th percentile or better in: xERA, xBA, whiff rate, K rate and hard-hit rate.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">With that said, this line feels a little low, despite that he&#8217;s going up against the Dodgers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Peralta has logged six quality starts \u2014 6.0+ IP, three or fewer earned runs \u2014 in eight opportunities since the beginning of June. One of those was against L.A. on July 7th, when Peralta threw 6.0 shutout innings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" id=\"block-0c59b741-4781-48d8-8ffa-d93f8ee90c10\">Los Angeles has struggled against righties over the last month, ranking 23rd in ISO and 24th in wRC+, and was shut out on Friday by Quinn Priester. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" id=\"block-13bf476e-3f27-4d52-86f2-70dff07fd638\"><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> Peralta has held this Dodgers lineup to a .212 batting average in 129 combined plate appearances. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"cacheembed:116026\">Embed: #116026<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul id=\"block-10146156-2d6b-49a8-b097-37743fd550b5\" class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/sports-hub\/baseball\/mlb?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=sportsbook_mlb\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>Full MLB betting markets<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-injury-report?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=injury_reports\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>MLB injury report<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/top-players\/hitting\/OPS-on-base_plus_slugging?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=stats_pages\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>MLB stats &amp; standings<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"block-ebade6eb-0e6a-4675-8cbc-3a4396c11ac4\">Best MLB picks<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Merrill over 1.5 bases (+104)<\/strong>: Merrill does his best work against righties, but we can expect some lefty-on-lefty damage tonight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">San Diego takes on Mitchell Parker and the Washington Nationals, and the southpaw has been a punching bag. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>5.12 ERA (5.57 xERA)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Third percentile K rate (14.7%)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Third percentile hard-hit rate (49.7%)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>.299\/.386\/.495 slash line vs. left-hitting batters<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Merrill has seen a fair bit of Parker, and the results are overwhelmingly positive. He&#8217;s 4-for-5 with a double and an .814 xSLG.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" id=\"block-310bddf4-d3c1-4fc6-8fe4-37281455da02\"><strong>Rocker under 4.5 strikeouts (-106)<\/strong>: The Detroit Tigers, Rocker&#8217;s opponent, strike out at the fourth-highest clip against righties in baseball.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" id=\"block-310bddf4-d3c1-4fc6-8fe4-37281455da02\">But Detroit also hits them hard (second in ISO, sixth in SLG vs. RHP in the last 30 days), and Rocker is as unreliable as they come. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The second-year Texas Ranger owns a 6.39 ERA and 1.50 WHIP.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>His 5.98 xERA and .296 xBA rank in the third and fifth percentile, respectively.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Rocker&#8217;s 19.3% K rate ranks in the 29th percentile. He&#8217;s gone under 4.5 Ks in three of his last four starts.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Rocker should clear this total if he can work a few times through the lineup. But Detroit&#8217;s offence is no joke, and I expect he&#8217;ll be pulled fairly early.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" id=\"block-571cf986-8d14-4776-b519-20fa27d04fec\"><em>MLB prop picks made at 9:30 a.m. ET on 07\/19\/2025<\/em>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Freddy Peralta and Jackson Merrill headline Saturday&#8217;s MLB prop bets. Today&#8217;s MLB props narrative: Peralta is having an excellent season with the Milwaukee Brewers and can earn his team a series win over the Los Angeles Dodgers tonight. Merrill, meanwhile, has an A+ matchup against a southpaw who gets rocked by left-handed bats. Check out [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":358553,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[60],"tags":[130],"class_list":["post-358461","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb","tag-mlb"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>MLB prop bets July 19: Picks, predictions &amp; odds | NorthStar Bets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our best MLB prop bets for July 19, 2025. 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