{"id":357816,"date":"2025-07-13T12:04:22","date_gmt":"2025-07-13T16:04:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=357816"},"modified":"2025-07-14T01:17:56","modified_gmt":"2025-07-14T05:17:56","slug":"mlb-home-run-picks-and-predictions-july-13","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mlb-home-run-picks-and-predictions-july-13\/","title":{"rendered":"MLB home run picks July 13: Target Teoscar Hernandez and Vladimir Guerrero Jr."},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Two big-time sluggers headline Sunday&#8217;s MLB home run picks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Today&#8217;s MLB HR narrative<\/strong>: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been crushing lefties this season and gets a Grade-A matchup to take advantage of. Elsewhere, Teoscar Hernandez faces a red-hot Robbie Ray, but there&#8217;s value on the side of the designated hitter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for July 13.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">MLB home run picks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/sports\/baseball\/competitions\/10065\"><strong>Full MLB betting markets<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-injury-report\"><strong>MLB injury report<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/top-players\/hitting\/OPS-on-base_plus_slugging\"><strong>MLB player stats<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/standings\/division\"><strong>MLB standings<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Best bet: <strong><strong>Hernandez to hit a home run (+450)<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I love the value on Hernandez in this matchup, and that&#8217;s basically due to Ray being a lefty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The San Francisco Giants starter is having a great season (9-3, 2.68 ERA), but no southpaw is safe against Hernandez.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>vs. RHP:<\/strong> .231 average (.404 SLG)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>vs. LHP:<\/strong> .356 average (.695 SLG)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>His 8.1% home-run rate against lefties also towers over his rate against righties (3.7%).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Hernandez is in a bit of a dry spell with no home runs in his last 13 games, but Sunday provides a great opportunity for him to go deep. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Additionally, wind will be blowing out to left centre field between 7-10 mph for the duration of the game, per Swish Analytics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> Hernandez is 3-for-7 in his career against Ray with three home runs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Best HR predictions<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><strong>Guererro to hit a home run (+333)<\/strong><\/strong>: Guerrero doesn&#8217;t rely on a platoon advantage, but he still enjoys one.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>His .325 batting average and .513 SLG against lefties are both at least 50 points higher than against righties.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>He only has 13 Ks against left-handed pitching this season in 94 at-bats, meaning he should put the ball in play.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Jeffery Springs is the southpaw taking the mound for the Athletics. His 3.95 ERA is fine, but his xERA of 4.17 ranks below average for a starter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He also throws a slow four-seam fastball over 40% of the time (90.5 mph average, seventh percentile) \u2014Guerrero is batting .333 and slugging .595 against four-seamers in 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Today&#8217;s contest will also be played at the A&#8217;s makeshift home of Sutter Health Park.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It ranks just behind Coors Field as the second most batter-friendly ballpark in the majors based on scoring (23% more runs than average). A gentle wind of 5.8 mph will be heading out to centre field at first pitch. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>MLB home run picks made at 11:56 a.m. ET on 07\/13\/2025<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Two big-time sluggers headline Sunday&#8217;s MLB home run picks. Today&#8217;s MLB HR narrative: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been crushing lefties this season and gets a Grade-A matchup to take advantage of. Elsewhere, Teoscar Hernandez faces a red-hot Robbie Ray, but there&#8217;s value on the side of the designated hitter. Check out the best MLB home [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":19,"featured_media":357802,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[452,60],"tags":[10],"class_list":["post-357816","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-com","category-mlb","tag-mlb-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>MLB home run picks July 13: Best bets, predictions &amp; odds | NSB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our best MLB home run picks for July 13, 2025. 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