{"id":357694,"date":"2025-07-12T14:01:30","date_gmt":"2025-07-12T18:01:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=357694"},"modified":"2025-07-12T14:01:31","modified_gmt":"2025-07-12T18:01:31","slug":"mlb-home-run-picks-and-predictions-july-12-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mlb-home-run-picks-and-predictions-july-12-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"MLB home run picks July 12: Can Kyle Schwarber homer in a fourth straight game?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/kyle_schwarber\/batting-stats\">Kyle Schwarber<\/a> is on a home run streak, and I&#8217;m backing him to extend it on Saturday night.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Today&#8217;s MLB HR narrative<\/strong>: Schwarber has homered in each of his past three games as part of an explosive month at the plate. Elsewhere, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/elly_de_la_cruz\/batting-stats\">Elly De La Cruz<\/a> hasn&#8217;t been nearly as hot \u2014 but he still has ample power potential.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for July 12.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">MLB home run picks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Best bet: Schwarber to hit a home run (+235)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This is relatively chalky as far as HR picks go, but how can you not be a fan of what Schwarber is doing right now?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>His performance in July has been off the charts:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>9 games<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>5 HRs<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>.800 SLG<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Schwarber has homered in three straight games, including the series opener at San Diego&#8217;s Petco Park last night. Petco isn&#8217;t a homer-friendly park, but Schwarber can slug anywhere.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Schwarber is an upper-crust masher, ranking in the 96th percentile or better in all the most crucial categories, as tracked by Baseball Savant: xSLG, average exit velocity, hard-hit rate and barrel rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Padres starter Yu Darvish made his season debut on July 7 after being sidelined with an elbow injury. His first start didn&#8217;t go very well (3.2 innings, two runs on three hits), and Schwarber has gotten the best of him in the past.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In their career head-to-head matchup, Schwarber is 5-for-14 with two home runs, two doubles and a 98.6-mph average exit velocity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> Schwarber already has 30 home runs, which is two behind Shohei Ohtani for the NL lead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"cacheembed:115794\">Embed: #115794<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/sports-hub\/baseball\/mlb?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=sportsbook_mlb\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>Full MLB betting markets<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-injury-report?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=injury_reports\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>MLB injury report<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/top-players\/hitting\/OPS-on-base_plus_slugging?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=stats_pages\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>MLB stats &amp; standings<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Best HR predictions<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><strong>De La Cruz to hit a home run (+280)<\/strong><\/strong>: De La Cruz is on a 16-game homerless slump, which isn&#8217;t a great selling point. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But now&#8217;s a great time to break out of that. He&#8217;s at home, batting on his preferred side and facing a very shaky pitcher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Cincinnati&#8217;s Great American Ball Park is the most homer-friendly venue in MLB (30% more homers than average).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>De La Cruz is slugging .543 with 13 HRs from the left side. By comparison, he&#8217;s slugging .393 with five HRs from the right side.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Colorado&#8217;s Bradley Blalock allowed 12 earned runs in 3.2 innings last time out, including three HRs.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Blalock has now allowed 21 runs over just three starts this season, and one of those outings was against the Reds. In that game, De La Cruz went 2-for-2 off Blalock.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>MLB home run picks made at 1:50 p.m. ET on 07\/12\/2025<\/em>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Kyle Schwarber is on a home run streak, and I&#8217;m backing him to extend it on Saturday night. Today&#8217;s MLB HR narrative: Schwarber has homered in each of his past three games as part of an explosive month at the plate. Elsewhere, Elly De La Cruz hasn&#8217;t been nearly as hot \u2014 but he still [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":357722,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[60],"tags":[10],"class_list":["post-357694","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb","tag-mlb-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>MLB home run picks July 12: Best bets, predictions &amp; odds | NSB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our best MLB home run picks for July 12, 2025. 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