{"id":357548,"date":"2025-07-12T10:31:25","date_gmt":"2025-07-12T14:31:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=357548"},"modified":"2025-07-12T10:53:01","modified_gmt":"2025-07-12T14:53:01","slug":"mlb-prop-bets-and-predictions-july-12-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mlb-prop-bets-and-predictions-july-12-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Best MLB prop bets July 12: Bet on Wheeler to rack up Ks, Ohtani to find two-way success"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>A pair of veteran aces headline Saturday&#8217;s MLB prop bets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-d0873b89-4dfa-47d6-9954-56140c451c77\"><strong>Today&#8217;s MLB props narrative<\/strong>: Though I don&#8217;t have a prediction on Jacob deGrom, his stellar work on the mound makes <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/isaac_paredes\/batting-stats\">Isaac Paredes<\/a> worth fading in a Lone Star State showdown. Elsewhere, look for <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/zack_wheeler\/pitching-stats\">Zack Wheeler<\/a> to build on his NL-leading strikeout total.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-d0873b89-4dfa-47d6-9954-56140c451c77\">Check out my top MLB prop bets for July 12, featuring a prediction on two-way superstar <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/shohei_ohtani\/batting-stats\">Shohei Ohtani<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"block-22b3784f-32c2-400a-beef-1578a991be49\">MLB prop bets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-0c59b741-4781-48d8-8ffa-d93f8ee90c10\"><strong>Best bet: Paredes under 0.5 hits (+140)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Paredes has had an excellent first half for the Astros, mashing 19 home runs en route to being named an all-star replacement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But I don&#8217;t like his chances in tonight&#8217;s matchup. Texas right-hander Jacob deGrom has a combination of sliders and upper-90s that is likely to baffle Paredes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Against right-hitting players, deGrom throws four-seam fastballs and sliders 96.2% of the time, per Baseball Savant. And his average fastball velocity is 97.4 mph.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Against fastballs that are 97+ mph, Paredes is 6-for-46 (.130) with zero extra-base hits. Against sliders from right-handed pitchers, he&#8217;s 7-for-42 (.167).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>deGrom (9-2, 2.29 ERA) looks like his old self, and the two-time Cy Young winner should be in contention for a third if he keeps it up.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He has the seventh-lowest opponent batting average this season (.193) among 99 pitchers with 80-plus innings of work. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The all-star fireballer also ranks in the 75th percentile or better in xBA, xERA, whiff rate, chase rate and barrel rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-13bf476e-3f27-4d52-86f2-70dff07fd638\"><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> Paredes ranks in the bottom-35th percentile in xBA, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"cacheembed:115786\">Embed: #115786<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul id=\"block-10146156-2d6b-49a8-b097-37743fd550b5\" class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/sports-hub\/baseball\/mlb?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=sportsbook_mlb\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>Full MLB betting markets<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-injury-report?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=injury_reports\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>MLB injury report<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/top-players\/hitting\/OPS-on-base_plus_slugging?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=stats_pages\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>MLB stats &amp; standings<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"block-ebade6eb-0e6a-4675-8cbc-3a4396c11ac4\">Best MLB picks<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Parlay: Ohtani 3+ strikeouts, 1+ hits (-103)<\/strong>: Ohtani has been slowly building back up on the mound, and now going over 2.5 Ks should be within reach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The NL MVP frontrunner threw a single inning in his first two outings of the year, and he completed 2.0 innings each of the past two starts. With an extended break on the horizon, I could see that workload ticking up again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If Ohtani pitches into the third on Saturday, I really like his chances to cash this modest Ks prop.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Giants have the sixth-highest K rate over the past two weeks (24.4%), and Ohtani has 16 Ks in 46 plate appearances against the active lineup (34.8 K%).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On the hitting side, Ohtani has a .998 OPS, which is the third-highest in MLB. He ranks in the 99th or 100th percentile in xSLG, barrel rate, hard-hit rate and average exit velocity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-310bddf4-d3c1-4fc6-8fe4-37281455da02\"><strong>Wheeler over 6.5 Ks (+114)<\/strong>: The San Diego Padres have one of the lowest strikeout rates in the majors, but I&#8217;m more focused on Wheeler&#8217;s side of this. He&#8217;s in a groove right now that cannot be ignored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Wheeler has 7+ Ks in six straight starts. In that span, he&#8217;s averaging 9.0 Ks per game.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Last time out, Wheeler fanned 12 batters in a complete game one-hitter vs. the Reds.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-310bddf4-d3c1-4fc6-8fe4-37281455da02\">Wheeler has cashed this bet in all four starts vs. the Padres since 2022, which includes a gem two weeks ago (8.0 innings, six hits, zero runs, 10 Ks).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The right-hander is five strikeouts shy of the MLB lead, so he should get back in front by day&#8217;s end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-571cf986-8d14-4776-b519-20fa27d04fec\"><em>MLB prop picks made at 9:55 a.m. ET on 07\/12\/2025<\/em>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A pair of veteran aces headline Saturday&#8217;s MLB prop bets. Today&#8217;s MLB props narrative: Though I don&#8217;t have a prediction on Jacob deGrom, his stellar work on the mound makes Isaac Paredes worth fading in a Lone Star State showdown. Elsewhere, look for Zack Wheeler to build on his NL-leading strikeout total. Check out my [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":357628,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[60],"tags":[10],"class_list":["post-357548","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb","tag-mlb-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>MLB prop bets July 12: Picks, predictions &amp; odds | NorthStar Bets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our best MLB prop bets for July 12, 2025. 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