{"id":357391,"date":"2025-07-11T10:18:26","date_gmt":"2025-07-11T14:18:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=357391"},"modified":"2025-07-11T10:18:27","modified_gmt":"2025-07-11T14:18:27","slug":"mlb-home-run-picks-and-predictions-july-11-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mlb-home-run-picks-and-predictions-july-11-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"MLB home run picks July 11: Look for Alec Burleson, Taylor Ward to mash"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/alec_burleson\/batting-stats\">Alec Burleson<\/a> has been powering up for the St. Louis Cardinals lately, and I like his chances of going deep on Friday night.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Today&#8217;s MLB HR narrative<\/strong>: Burleson is one of tonight&#8217;s two MLB home run picks, alongside <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/taylor_ward\/batting-stats\">Taylor Ward<\/a>. Last night, Ward mashed his 21st home run of the season (tied for fifth in the American League).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for July 11.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">MLB home run picks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Best bet: Burleson to hit a home run (+500)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Burleson only has 11 HRs this year, which isn&#8217;t a ton for an everyday player situated in the Nos. 3-5 spots in the lineup.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But there&#8217;s plenty to like about his matchup tonight against Braves starter Grant Holmes:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Burleson is swinging a hot bat.<\/strong> In his past 21 games, he has six HRs and a .549 SLG.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>He&#8217;ll have a platoon advantage.<\/strong> Against right-handed pitchers this season, the left-hitting Burleson has a .308\/.353\/.493 slash line.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Holmes&#8217; strikeout prowess shouldn&#8217;t be too much of a factor.<\/strong> Holmes ranks in the 81st percentile or better in whiff rate and strikeout rate &#8230; but Burleson is in the 90th percentile in both categories on the hitting side, per Baseball Savant.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>On the road, Holmes hasn&#8217;t been at his sharpest this season. He has a 4.46 ERA, with eight HRs allowed in 40.1 innings (compared to seven HRs allowed in 61.2 IP at home).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I&#8217;m confident in Burleson&#8217;s ability not to go down via the strikeout. And if he holds up in that regard, Holmes is likely to give him a crushable pitch to hit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Holmes allows a 14th-percentile barrel rate (11.1%).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> Among 68 qualified pitchers, Holmes has the seventh-highest HR-to-fly-ball ratio in MLB (15.8%).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"cacheembed:115755\">Embed: #115755<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/sports-hub\/baseball\/mlb?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=sportsbook_mlb\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>Full MLB betting markets<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-injury-report?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=injury_reports\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>MLB injury report<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/top-players\/hitting\/OPS-on-base_plus_slugging?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=stats_pages\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>MLB stats &amp; standings<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Best HR predictions<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><strong>Ward to hit a home run (+390)<\/strong><\/strong>: Ward went deep last night at Angel Stadium, and I&#8217;m eager to see if he can run it back.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The outfielder is strikeout-prone and doesn&#8217;t really hit for average, but that&#8217;s okay. His 84th-percentile barrel rate (13.6%), per Baseball Savant, indicates that a high rate of his batted balls are crushed. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Tonight, he&#8217;ll face Arizona starter Ryne Nelson (5-2, 3.39 ERA), who&#8217;s having a solid season on paper. But Nelson allows a lot of hard contact, which has my attention.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Nelson ranks in the 15th percentile in average exit velocity allowed (90.8 mph), and his opponent xBA (.259) far exceeds his actual opponent BA (.193).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Also, Ward&#8217;s home park is the fourth-friendliest HR venue for right-hitting players (17% more HRs than average).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>MLB home run picks made at 10:10 a.m. ET on 07\/11\/2025<\/em>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Alec Burleson has been powering up for the St. Louis Cardinals lately, and I like his chances of going deep on Friday night. Today&#8217;s MLB HR narrative: Burleson is one of tonight&#8217;s two MLB home run picks, alongside Taylor Ward. Last night, Ward mashed his 21st home run of the season (tied for fifth in [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":357415,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[60],"tags":[10],"class_list":["post-357391","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb","tag-mlb-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>MLB home run picks July 11: Best bets, predictions &amp; odds | NSB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our best MLB home run picks for July 11, 2025. 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