{"id":356668,"date":"2025-07-08T11:55:38","date_gmt":"2025-07-08T15:55:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=356668"},"modified":"2025-07-08T11:55:38","modified_gmt":"2025-07-08T15:55:38","slug":"mlb-home-run-picks-and-predictions-july-8-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mlb-home-run-picks-and-predictions-july-8-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"MLB home run picks July 8: Bet on Jackson Chourio to take Clayton Kershaw deep"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/jackson_chourio\/batting-stats\">Jackson Chourio<\/a> headlines Tuesday&#8217;s MLB home run picks. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Today&#8217;s MLB HR narrative<\/strong>: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/clayton_kershaw\/pitching-stats\">Clayton Kershaw<\/a> was named to his 11th all-star team this week as a &#8220;Legend Pick&#8221; in recognition of his illustrious career. But the southpaw&#8217;s best years are well behind him, and Chourio should be able to take him deep tonight.   <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Check out the best MLB home run picks for July 8, featuring <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/dominic_canzone\/batting-stats\">Dominic Canzone<\/a>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">MLB home run picks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Best bet: Chourio to hit a home run (+575)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Kershaw will have a spot in Cooperstown the second he&#8217;s eligible, but until then he&#8217;s a prime fade candidate for me.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The 37-year-old southpaw has a 3.43 ERA this year \u2014 which might not seem terrible \u2014 but is giving up a ton of hard contact and is struggling to miss bats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>35th percentile xERA (4.18)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>18th percentile K rate (17.5)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>4th percentile hard-hit rate (48.9)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Kershaw has given up four home runs in his last three starts and now faces a potent Milwaukee Brewers lineup averaging the eighth-most runs per game.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Of all the players on the Brewers to target, Chourio is my man.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The 21-year-old has an absurd .360\/.390\/.620 slash line against lefties this year, and draws walks at one of the lowest rates in the league (4.2%, sixth percentile). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Being a free swinger is key for a wager like this, and I expect Chourio to find an offering he can smash from Kershaw. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> Kershaw has allowed five of his six HRs to right-hitting batters this season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"cacheembed:115635\">Embed: #115635<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/sports-hub\/baseball\/mlb?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=sportsbook_mlb\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>Full MLB betting markets<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-injury-report?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=injury_reports\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>MLB injury report<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/top-players\/hitting\/OPS-on-base_plus_slugging?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=stats_pages\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>MLB stats &amp; standings<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Best HR predictions<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><strong>Canzone to hit a home run (+390)<\/strong><\/strong>: You probably don&#8217;t know who Canzone is, and that&#8217;s fine. Because I honestly wasn&#8217;t too familiar with his game ahead of researching for this piece.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The 27-year-old is on a nice run for the Seattle Mariners after getting called up in early June, slashing .293\/.321\/.573 through 25 games with six home runs.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">He does a ton of damage against right-handed pitchers and has an A-plus matchup tonight:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Canzone is slugging .615 against RHP this year, hitting all of his home runs against righties.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>He&#8217;s going up against New York&#8217;s Will Warren (5.02 ERA). The righty has a 12th-percentile hard-hit rate and has given up a .832 OPS to left-hitting batters this season.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Yankee Stadium is the fourth-most HR-friendly park for LHBs according to Baseball Savant&#8217;s park factors. Winds of around 7-8 mph blowing out to centre should help our cause.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I love Canzone&#8217;s chances of putting one over the short porch tonight. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>MLB home run picks made at 10:30 a.m. ET on 07\/08\/2025<\/em>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Jackson Chourio headlines Tuesday&#8217;s MLB home run picks. Today&#8217;s MLB HR narrative: Clayton Kershaw was named to his 11th all-star team this week as a &#8220;Legend Pick&#8221; in recognition of his illustrious career. But the southpaw&#8217;s best years are well behind him, and Chourio should be able to take him deep tonight. Check out the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":356680,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[60],"tags":[10],"class_list":["post-356668","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb","tag-mlb-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>MLB home run picks July 8: Best bets, predictions &amp; odds | NSB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our best MLB home run picks for July 8, 2025. 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