{"id":356522,"date":"2025-07-07T11:43:59","date_gmt":"2025-07-07T15:43:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=356522"},"modified":"2025-07-07T13:43:27","modified_gmt":"2025-07-07T17:43:27","slug":"mlb-home-run-picks-and-predictions-july-7-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mlb-home-run-picks-and-predictions-july-7-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"MLB home run picks July 7: Bet on Trevor Story, Manny Machado on Monday"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/trevor_story\/batting-stats\">Trevor Story<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/manny_machado\/batting-stats\">Manny Machado<\/a> are my home run targets for Monday&#8217;s MLB slate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Today&#8217;s MLB HR narrative<\/strong>: The wind is projected to blow out hard to the Green Monster at Fenway Park tonight, and the right-hitting Story has a platoon advantage. Elsewhere, Manny Machado should do damage against a familiar foe. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Check out the best MLB home run picks for July 7.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">MLB home run picks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Best bet: Story to hit a home run (+280)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">According to Swish Analytics, the wind will be blowing out to left field at roughly 10 mph through the first two hours of this contest. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That means Colorado Rockies&#8217; lefty Austin Gomber could be in a world of trouble against a few of Boston&#8217;s top hitters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Story has been swinging a red-hot bat, slashing .469\/.500\/.875 with three home runs over an eight-game hit streak. Yesterday, he sent this towering shot out of Nationals Park for his 14th home run of the year:  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Trevor Story goes deep and the <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/RedSox?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@RedSox<\/a> have put up 4 in the first! <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/Rqq1Ibbr2r\">pic.twitter.com\/Rqq1Ibbr2r<\/a><\/p>&mdash; MLB (@MLB) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/MLB\/status\/1941916804617519140?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">July 6, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Gomber has only made four starts this year since being activated from the IL, and the early results haven&#8217;t been encouraging:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>5.49 ERA<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>1.53 WHIP<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Four HRs, six Ks<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The lefty posted an ERA north of 4.50 from 2021-2024, though, and ranked in the bottom 10th percentile for xERA, xBA, and K rate last year, so this was to be expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> Right-hitting batters are slashing .352\/.378\/.620 vs. Gomber this year, and Story is slashing .279\/.311\/.465 against LHP.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/sports-hub\/baseball\/mlb?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=sportsbook_mlb\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>Full MLB betting markets<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-injury-report?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=injury_reports\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>MLB injury report<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/top-players\/hitting\/OPS-on-base_plus_slugging?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=stats_pages\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>MLB stats &amp; standings<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Best HR predictions<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><strong>Machado to hit a home run (+425)<\/strong><\/strong>: The San Diego Padres open up a three-game set against the divisional rival Arizona Diamondbacks tonight, and I think the home team is set to tee off.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">D-backs starter Zac Gallen is having a nightmare season, posting career-worst numbers in:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>ERA (5.45)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>WHIP (1.37)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>OBA (.249)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>K\/9 (8.5)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Gallen has given up 10 home runs in his last six starts and has the fifth-highest HR\/9 rate (1.7) among all qualified pitchers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Machado has seen plenty of Gallen, going 6-for-25 with a home run. But the advanced metrics suggest he&#8217;s been a tad unlucky. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The power-hitting third baseman has a .343 xBA and .704 xSLG in those at-bats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I expect Machado to utilize that familiarity to capitalize against a struggling pitcher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>MLB home run picks made at 11:00 a.m. ET on 07\/07\/2025<\/em>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Trevor Story and Manny Machado are my home run targets for Monday&#8217;s MLB slate. Today&#8217;s MLB HR narrative: The wind is projected to blow out hard to the Green Monster at Fenway Park tonight, and the right-hitting Story has a platoon advantage. Elsewhere, Manny Machado should do damage against a familiar foe. Check out the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":356541,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[60],"tags":[130],"class_list":["post-356522","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb","tag-mlb"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>MLB home run picks July 7: Best bets, predictions &amp; odds | NSB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our best MLB home run picks for July 7, 2025. 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