{"id":355965,"date":"2025-07-05T11:47:55","date_gmt":"2025-07-05T15:47:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=355965"},"modified":"2025-07-05T11:47:56","modified_gmt":"2025-07-05T15:47:56","slug":"mlb-prop-bets-and-predictions-july-5","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mlb-prop-bets-and-predictions-july-5\/","title":{"rendered":"Best MLB prop bets July 5: Back Gleyber Torres and fade Shohei Ohtani on Saturday"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" id=\"block-6136ecc2-0cb3-4ab9-907f-141f56234f79\">Every MLB team is in action on Saturday and I&#8217;ve got three prop bets for the action.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" id=\"block-d0873b89-4dfa-47d6-9954-56140c451c77\"><strong>Today&#8217;s MLB props narrative<\/strong>: Shohei Ohtani makes his fourth start as a pitcher this season, going opposite Houston&#8217;s Framber Valdez. I&#8217;m looking to capitalize on Ohtani&#8217;s spotty track record against Valdez, who has been a stud in his own right this season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" id=\"block-d0873b89-4dfa-47d6-9954-56140c451c77\">Check out my top MLB prop bets for July 5, featuring picks on Gleyber Torres and Gavin Sheets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"block-22b3784f-32c2-400a-beef-1578a991be49\">MLB prop bets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/sports\/baseball\/competitions\/10065\"><strong>Full MLB betting markets<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-injury-report\"><strong>MLB injury report<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/top-players\/hitting\/OPS-on-base_plus_slugging\"><strong>MLB player stats<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/standings\/division\"><strong>MLB standings<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" id=\"block-0c59b741-4781-48d8-8ffa-d93f8ee90c10\"><strong>Best bet: Torres to score (-130)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Torres is having a renaissance in his first season with the Tigers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The second baseman is posting a career-high batting average (.279) and his best OPS (.809) since 2019, when he was a New York Yankee.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Are those earth-shattering numbers? No. But Torres has gotten better as the year has gone on and is doing a ton of damage against left-handed pitching.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>.299\/.386\/.474 slash line in June<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>.300\/.412\/.543 slash line vs. LHP<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Logan Allen gets the ball for the Cleveland Guardians today, and he&#8217;s been struggling. The southpaw struggles to miss bats and issues up a ton of walks, leading to a 4.27 ERA and 1.49 WHIP.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I was debating backing Torres over 1.5 bases at plus money, but feel more comfortable taking him to score as the leadoff man on the road.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"> Detroit has the second-best wRC+ vs. LHP this year (136), so I trust the lineup to drive Torres home once he gets on.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" id=\"block-13bf476e-3f27-4d52-86f2-70dff07fd638\"><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> Torres has scored six runs in his last six games, going 4-2 vs. this line. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"block-ebade6eb-0e6a-4675-8cbc-3a4396c11ac4\">Best MLB picks<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Ohtani under 0.5 runs (-110)<\/strong>: Fading the best player on the best offence in baseball is risky business, but I think it makes sense here.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ohtani is all too familiar with Valdez from his days with the Los Angeles Angels, and the head-to-head matchup skews heavily with the pitcher. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Ohtani is 5-for-36 against Valdez with 12 strikeouts and six walks. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>His .169 xBA and .281 xSLG in those matchups indicate Valdez hasn&#8217;t gotten lucky.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Houston&#8217;s lefty is also on fire, with a 1.57 ERA in his last seven starts, so this seems like a good spot to throw down a rare fade on Ohtani.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" id=\"block-310bddf4-d3c1-4fc6-8fe4-37281455da02\"><strong>Sheets over 0.5 RBI (+190)<\/strong>: I backed Sheets on this market yesterday, and he went 2-for-4 without driving anyone in. But I&#8217;ll gladly go back to that well in a plus matchup today.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" id=\"block-310bddf4-d3c1-4fc6-8fe4-37281455da02\">The outfielder hits behind Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Jackson Merrill, and Luis Arraez, which is right where we want to be for run production.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Especially against Texas Rangers southpaw Patrick Corbin, who has been MLB&#8217;s whipping boy over the past few seasons: <\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>5.20 ERA or higher from 2021-2024<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>4.26 ERA this season <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>5.28 ERA in June<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Corbin has generally done well to shut down left-hitting batters this season, holding them to a .209\/.270\/374 slash line. But Sheets is swinging a hot bat and has hit LHP well enough this year (.263 BA) for me to buy in.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" id=\"block-571cf986-8d14-4776-b519-20fa27d04fec\"><em>MLB prop picks made at 9:55 a.m. ET on 07\/05\/2025<\/em>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Every MLB team is in action on Saturday and I&#8217;ve got three prop bets for the action. Today&#8217;s MLB props narrative: Shohei Ohtani makes his fourth start as a pitcher this season, going opposite Houston&#8217;s Framber Valdez. I&#8217;m looking to capitalize on Ohtani&#8217;s spotty track record against Valdez, who has been a stud in his [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":355937,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[452,60],"tags":[130],"class_list":["post-355965","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-com","category-mlb","tag-mlb"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>MLB prop bets July 5: Picks, predictions &amp; odds | NorthStar Bets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our best MLB prop bets for July 5, 2025. 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