{"id":355860,"date":"2025-07-04T14:20:13","date_gmt":"2025-07-04T18:20:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=355860"},"modified":"2025-07-04T14:20:13","modified_gmt":"2025-07-04T18:20:13","slug":"mlb-home-run-picks-and-predictions-july-4","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mlb-home-run-picks-and-predictions-july-4\/","title":{"rendered":"MLB home run picks July 4: Bet on Jackson Merrill, Andrew Benintendi to provide fireworks"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It&#8217;s the Fourth of July, and I expect Jackson Merrill and Andrew Benintendi to provide the fireworks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Today&#8217;s MLB HR narrative<\/strong>: Merrill&#8217;s ability to torch right-handed pitching earned him runner-up NL Rookie of the Year votes last season. Tonight, he faces a struggling righty at home. Benintendi, meanwhile, has a plus matchup in a hitter-friendly venue. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Check out the best MLB home run picks for July 4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">MLB home run picks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/sports\/baseball\/competitions\/10065\"><strong>Full MLB betting markets<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-injury-report\"><strong>MLB injury report<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/top-players\/hitting\/OPS-on-base_plus_slugging\"><strong>MLB player stats<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/standings\/division\"><strong>MLB standings<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Best bet: Merrill to hit a home run (+375)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Merill is struggling right now, but I wouldn&#8217;t go as far as to call it a sophomore slump. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">He&#8217;s still slashing .290\/.352\/.440 despite a poor June (.238 average, .339 SLG), and tonight, he gets a perfect slump-buster in Kumar Rocker.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Merrill career vs. RHP:<\/strong> .308\/.351\/.518, 112 OPS+ <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Kumar career vs. LHB:<\/strong> .321\/.398\/.486, 124 opponent OPS+ <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Texas Rangers&#8217; righty has gotten shelled away from home this year, with an 11.34 ERA and .400 opponent batting average. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Rocker&#8217;s 20.4% K rate (39th percentile) and 6.6% walk rate (77th percentile) mean opponents are putting the ball in play about 75% of the time. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And his 46.9% hard-hit rate (10th percentile) \u2014 qualified as balls batted above 95 mph \u2014 means those offerings are getting smashed. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> Merrill has hit 29 career home runs, and 22 have come against righties. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Best HR predictions<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Benintendi to hit a home run (+475)<\/strong>: We&#8217;ve got a true dumpster fire of a series happening in Denver tonight when the Colorado Rockies host the Chicago White Sox.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The two squads have combined for 48 wins and a -313 run differential heading into July 4 \u2014 but there&#8217;s still value to be had. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Benintendi is hitting RHP well enough lately, sporting a .444 SLG over the last 30 days. In that span, he has a 6.4% walk rate and 7.7% K rate against righties. That means the ball is put in play roughly 85% of the time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Now, he gets the thin air at Coors Field and a pitcher \u2014 Antonio Senzatela \u2014 who is utterly lost at the moment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Senzatela (6.69 ERA) ranks in the first percentile for xERA (6.75), xBA (.333), and K rate (10.7%). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Benintendi has four HRs in his last 12 games, so I definitely dig this +475 price point.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>MLB home run picks made at 1:40 p.m. ET on 07\/04\/2025<\/em>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>It&#8217;s the Fourth of July, and I expect Jackson Merrill and Andrew Benintendi to provide the fireworks. Today&#8217;s MLB HR narrative: Merrill&#8217;s ability to torch right-handed pitching earned him runner-up NL Rookie of the Year votes last season. Tonight, he faces a struggling righty at home. Benintendi, meanwhile, has a plus matchup in a hitter-friendly [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":355851,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[452,60],"tags":[130],"class_list":["post-355860","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-com","category-mlb","tag-mlb"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>MLB home run picks July 4: Best bets, predictions &amp; odds | NSB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our best MLB home run picks for July 4, 2025. 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