{"id":355716,"date":"2025-07-04T10:17:03","date_gmt":"2025-07-04T14:17:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=355716"},"modified":"2025-07-04T10:17:03","modified_gmt":"2025-07-04T14:17:03","slug":"mlb-prop-bets-and-predictions-july-4","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mlb-prop-bets-and-predictions-july-4\/","title":{"rendered":"Best MLB prop bets July 4: Back Christian Yelich, Mookie Betts to produce"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" id=\"block-6136ecc2-0cb3-4ab9-907f-141f56234f79\">It&#8217;s Independence Day south of the border, meaning we&#8217;ve got MLB games from noon till midnight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" id=\"block-d0873b89-4dfa-47d6-9954-56140c451c77\"><strong>Today&#8217;s MLB props narrative<\/strong>: Christian Yelich is on fire and Mookie Betts is slumping. But they both have favourable matchups against a pair of struggling pitchers and should find ways to produce. Before that, I&#8217;m looking toward Gavin Sheets to deliver an RBI for the San Diego Padres.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" id=\"block-d0873b89-4dfa-47d6-9954-56140c451c77\">Check out my top MLB prop bets for July 4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"block-22b3784f-32c2-400a-beef-1578a991be49\">MLB prop bets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/sports\/baseball\/competitions\/10065\"><strong>Full MLB betting markets<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-injury-report\"><strong>MLB injury report<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/top-players\/hitting\/OPS-on-base_plus_slugging\"><strong>MLB player stats<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/standings\/division\"><strong>MLB standings<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" id=\"block-0c59b741-4781-48d8-8ffa-d93f8ee90c10\"><strong>Best bet: Yelich over 1.5 total bases (+110)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yelich put a slow start to the year behind him by catching fire in the second half of June. Check out his numbers over the last 15 games:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>.390 batting average<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>.695 slugging percentage<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>1.132 OPS<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Six doubles, four HRs<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In that span, Yelich has a .315 xBA and a 53% hard-hit rate, per Baseball Savant. Both of those would rank in the 90th percentile or higher over a full season, so we know this is no fluke. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Can he sustain that type of production? Probably not. But tonight, he should be able to keep it going.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yelich goes up against Sandy Alcantara, who sports an ugly 6.98 ERA. The righty ranks in the bottom-25 percentile for K rate, hard-hit rate, xERA and xBA. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Alcantara relies on a 4-seamer\/sinker combo nearly 50% of his pitches which clocks in the upper-90s. Yelich is batting .325 with a .525 SLG against RHP fastballs over 95 mph. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" id=\"block-13bf476e-3f27-4d52-86f2-70dff07fd638\"><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> Yelich is 10-5 against this line in his last 15 games. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"block-ebade6eb-0e6a-4675-8cbc-3a4396c11ac4\">Best MLB picks<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Betts to score (-112)<\/strong>: I&#8217;m sure more would be made about Betts&#8217; dip in production if the Dodgers didn&#8217;t have an embarrassment of riches to cover it up.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The eight-time All-Star is posting career lows in batting average (.246), slugging percentage (.383) and OPS (.704) \u2014 so why back him? <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Betts has had a ton of success against Houston Astros starter Lance McCullers Jr., and McCullers is really fighting it at the moment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Betts vs. McCullers: <\/strong>7-for-15, .619 OBP, 1 K<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>McCullers 2025 stats:<\/strong> 6.61 ERA, 1.62 WHIP<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The righty has a sixth percentile walk rate (12.9%), which is another boon for this wager. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" id=\"block-310bddf4-d3c1-4fc6-8fe4-37281455da02\"><strong>Sheets over 0.5 RBI (+170)<\/strong>: Sheets is far from the biggest name on San Diego&#8217;s star-studded roster, but that&#8217;s the point.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" id=\"block-310bddf4-d3c1-4fc6-8fe4-37281455da02\">He hits behind guys like Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Jackson Merrill, and Luis Arraez, which is an A-plus spot from run production.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Padres face Texas Rangers righty Kumar Rocker, who is getting tee&#8217;d up in his sophomore season:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>6.13 ERA (5.55 xERA)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>.302 BA (.297 xERA)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>1.54 WHIP<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The left-hitting sheets has a .267\/.332\/.490 slash line against RHP. That&#8217;s not amazing but it&#8217;s still better than his numbers against lefties, indicating a slight platoon advantage. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" id=\"block-571cf986-8d14-4776-b519-20fa27d04fec\"><em>MLB prop picks made at 9:07 a.m. ET on 07\/04\/2025<\/em>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>It&#8217;s Independence Day south of the border, meaning we&#8217;ve got MLB games from noon till midnight. Today&#8217;s MLB props narrative: Christian Yelich is on fire and Mookie Betts is slumping. But they both have favourable matchups against a pair of struggling pitchers and should find ways to produce. Before that, I&#8217;m looking toward Gavin Sheets [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":355701,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[452,60],"tags":[130],"class_list":["post-355716","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-com","category-mlb","tag-mlb"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>MLB prop bets July 4: Picks, predictions &amp; odds | NorthStar Bets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our best MLB prop bets for July 4, 2025. 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