{"id":355613,"date":"2025-07-03T15:05:02","date_gmt":"2025-07-03T19:05:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=355613"},"modified":"2025-07-03T15:05:02","modified_gmt":"2025-07-03T19:05:02","slug":"wimbledon-tennis-predictions-and-best-bets-july-4-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/wimbledon-tennis-predictions-and-best-bets-july-4-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Wimbledon third-round picks and predictions July 4: Best bets for Alcaraz, Jarry vs. Fonseca"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>One of the world&#8217;s best tennis players is in action at Wimbledon on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The pregame narrative:<\/strong> Carlos Alcaraz looks to continue his unmatched dominance at the Grand Slam major. He faces Jan-Lennard Struff in the third round. Before that, Nicolas Jarry is an underdog against Joao Fonseca despite winning five straight matches.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Check out my top Wimbledon predictions for July 4, including a pick on Karen Khachanov vs. Nuno Borges.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Wimbledon predictions: July 4<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Best Bet: Alcaraz\/Struff under 30.5 games (-112)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Alcaraz looks unbeatable right now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>He&#8217;s on a 20-match win streak and is 7-0 on grass in 2025.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Since the start of 2023, he&#8217;s 27-1 on the playing surface. The Spaniard has won back-to-back titles at Wimbledon.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Taking the under in his match vs. Struff is a good way to back Alcaraz to win in straight sets while avoiding his very hefty -770 price tag.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There&#8217;s always the possibility that Struff keeps the sets close, pushing the number of games over this total. But with how Alcaraz is playing, I predict a comfortable win.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Struff is past his prime, ranking No. 121 in the world at 35 years old. He is off to an awful start to 2025 with a 7-17 record.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He upset Felix Auger-Aliassime in the second round, but the Canadian is known to be streaky. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That contest was delayed and stretched over two days. That should negatively affect the veteran&#8217;s stamina moving forward.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Alcaraz is not a streaky player and will surely bring his A-game, looking for a third straight Wimbledon title.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> Alcaraz is coming off a dominant win over Oliver Tarvet (6-1, 6-4, 6-4) and has won 11 of his last 20 matches in straight sets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"cacheembed:115500\">Embed: #115500<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/sports-hub\/tennis\/grand_slam\/wimbledon\">Full tennis betting markets<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Wimbledon best bet: Jarry vs. Fonseca<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Jarry to win (+180)<\/strong>: In my opinion, this should be a lot closer to a pick&#8217;em, so I&#8217;ll ride with a value on the side of the underdog.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Jarry needed to qualify for Wimbledon and did so by winning all three matches in straight sets.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>He followed that up with a first-round upset over Holger Rune, the No. 8-ranked player.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Most recently, he picked up a dominant straight set win (6-2, 6-2, 6-4) over Learner Tien (No. 62) in the second round.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>His next opponent, Fonseca, is the higher-ranked player, but I&#8217;m not sure he&#8217;s the better player on this surface.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Brazilian is 3-2 on grass this year and only won one of those contests in straight sets. He&#8217;s seen a lot of resistance, and it should keep coming against a game opponent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Jarry is 8-3 on grass in 2025 and has played 26 more matches on the surface in his career. I expect that experience to shine through for the red-hot Chilean player.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Best bet: Khachanov vs. Borges<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Khachanov -1.5 sets (-121)<\/strong>: Khachanov is one of the more consistent players on grass. His 32-19 record on the court type provides his highest win rate of any of the playing surfaces.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He looks to still be improving, too. He&#8217;s won more games on grass in 2025 (six) than he&#8217;s ever won in a single season, and he can continue to build on that success with a deep run at Wimbledon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Borges doesn&#8217;t share that same success. He&#8217;s 10-13 in his career on the surface and has never finished a season with above a 50% win rate on grass.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Additionally, Khachanov and Borges have met once at a Grand Slam major (2022 French Open), and the former won the match while covering this -1.5 set spread.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With all that working in Khachanov&#8217;s favour, I believe he can beat Borges without needing all five sets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Wimbledon predictions made at 1:45 p.m. on 07\/03\/2025.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>One of the world&#8217;s best tennis players is in action at Wimbledon on Friday. The pregame narrative: Carlos Alcaraz looks to continue his unmatched dominance at the Grand Slam major. He faces Jan-Lennard Struff in the third round. Before that, Nicolas Jarry is an underdog against Joao Fonseca despite winning five straight matches. Check out [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":19,"featured_media":355652,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[129],"class_list":["post-355613","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tennis","tag-tennis-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Wimbledon predictions July 4: Third-round picks, best bets | NSB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our Wimbledon predictions for July 4, 2025. 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