{"id":355548,"date":"2025-07-03T11:21:06","date_gmt":"2025-07-03T15:21:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=355548"},"modified":"2025-07-03T11:21:06","modified_gmt":"2025-07-03T15:21:06","slug":"mlb-home-run-picks-and-predictions-july-3-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mlb-home-run-picks-and-predictions-july-3-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"MLB home run picks July 3: Bet on Andy Pages, Ronald Acuna Jr. to go yard"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/andy_pages\/batting-stats\">Andy Pages<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/ronald_acuna_jr\/batting-stats\">Ronaldo Acuna Jr.<\/a> headline today&#8217;s MLB home run picks. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Today&#8217;s MLB HR narrative<\/strong>: Pages is having a breakout year with the Los Angeles Dodgers and gets a chance to do more damage at home against the Chicago White Sox. Before that, look for Acuna to attack hard-throwing righty Jose Soriano. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Check out the best MLB home run picks for July 3.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">MLB home run picks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Best bet: Pages to hit a home run (+390)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It doesn&#8217;t seem fair that the Dodges get to slide in Pages to their already-stacked roster. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The sophomore centre fielder ranks inside MLB&#8217;s top 25 in batting average (.293), home runs (17) and RBI (58). Pages has already surpassed last year&#8217;s HR and RBI totals in just over half as many games. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">He&#8217;s a free swinger who doesn&#8217;t take a lot of walks, which is always great for a bet like this. Especially when he&#8217;s facing a fly ball pitcher who is getting rocked.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Aaron Civale (4.74 ERA) ranks in the seventh percentile for ground ball rate and the 27th percentile for barrel rate. Chicago&#8217;s newly acquired righty has given up 18 hits in 17 innings since joining the club, with two leaving the yard.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Pages also runs reverse splits against righties (.539 SLG), meaning he hits them harder than southpaws (.430 SLG).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> Dodger Stadium is the most homer-friendly park in the majors for right-hitting players, and Pages is slugging .616 at home.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"cacheembed:115461\">Embed: #115461<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/sports-hub\/baseball\/mlb?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=sportsbook_mlb\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>Full MLB betting markets<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-injury-report?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=injury_reports\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>MLB injury report<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/top-players\/hitting\/OPS-on-base_plus_slugging?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=stats_pages\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>MLB stats &amp; standings<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Best HR predictions<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Acuna to hit a home run (+475)<\/strong>: Acuna came off the IL in late May and immediately started raking, bashing three home runs and batting .378 in his first eight games. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">He&#8217;s tapered off a little bit since, but still hit six home runs in June with a 1.087 OPS. With that said, I&#8217;m loving this price on a former 40-40 player in a plus matchup.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Acuna has always hit righties well, and this year is no different (.388\/.487\/.673 slash line). Soriano has a seventh percentile hard-hit rate and leans heavily on a sinker clocking in at over 95mph.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That&#8217;s good news for us, because Acuna is batting .470 with a .583 SLG against that offering this season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>MLB home run picks made at 10:53 a.m. ET on 07\/03\/2025<\/em>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Andy Pages and Ronaldo Acuna Jr. headline today&#8217;s MLB home run picks. Today&#8217;s MLB HR narrative: Pages is having a breakout year with the Los Angeles Dodgers and gets a chance to do more damage at home against the Chicago White Sox. Before that, look for Acuna to attack hard-throwing righty Jose Soriano. Check out [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":355567,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[60],"tags":[130],"class_list":["post-355548","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb","tag-mlb"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>MLB home run picks July 3: Best bets, predictions &amp; odds | NSB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our best MLB home run picks for July 3, 2025. 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