{"id":355366,"date":"2025-07-02T11:31:16","date_gmt":"2025-07-02T15:31:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=355366"},"modified":"2025-07-02T11:31:17","modified_gmt":"2025-07-02T15:31:17","slug":"mlb-home-run-picks-and-predictions-july-2-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mlb-home-run-picks-and-predictions-july-2-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"MLB home run picks July 2: Austin Slater worth a look as +700 long shot"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Wednesday&#8217;s MLB home run picks may not have a ton of brand recognition, but there is a +700 play on the menu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Today&#8217;s MLB HR narrative<\/strong>: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/austin_slater\/batting-stats\">Austin Slater<\/a> might be an unlikely HR candidate, but there are some notable factors working in his favour tonight. Elsewhere, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/cam_smith\/batting-stats\">Cam Smith<\/a> looks to continue an impressive power surge at the plate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Check out the best MLB home run picks for July 2.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">MLB home run picks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Best bet: Smith to hit a home run (+380)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Less than a year ago, Smith was a first-round draftee by the Chicago Cubs. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Now, after being the centrepiece of a trade that sent Kyle Tucker to Chicago, Smith is shining as a big-leaguer with Houston.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The right-hitting outfielder has a solid .777 OPS (118 OPS+), and he&#8217;s trending up in the past few weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Since June 13, Smith is slugging .600 in a 17-game span. That includes four multi-hit games \u2014 and two home runs \u2014 in his past five.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Tonight, Smith&#8217;s Astros face Rockies left-hander Austin Gomber at the offence-friendly Coors Field. According to Baseball Savant&#8217;s park factors, runs are scored at a 25% higher clip at Coors relative to the league average.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Gomber allowed an NL-high 30 home runs last season. Dating back to 2023, he&#8217;s coughed up 59 dingers in 60 starts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Smith has been crushing the ball lately, and he has excellent numbers against lefties. Playing at Coors Field is just icing on the cake. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> Against LHPs, Smith is slugging .634 with four HRs in just 41 at-bats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"cacheembed:115432\">Embed: #115432<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/sports-hub\/baseball\/mlb?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=sportsbook_mlb\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>Full MLB betting markets<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-injury-report?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=injury_reports\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>MLB injury report<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/top-players\/hitting\/OPS-on-base_plus_slugging?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=stats_pages\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>MLB stats &amp; standings<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Best HR predictions<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Slater to hit a home run (+700)<\/strong>: This is a long shot, so tread lightly. But there are some reasons to take a +700 flier on Slater tonight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Slater will be in a very familiar matchup against Dodgers left-hander Clayton Kershaw. In his career vs. Kershaw, Slater is 7-for-27 with three home runs and a double (.630 SLG).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Dodger Stadium is the most homer-friendly park in the majors for right-hitting players (35% more HRs than average).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Slater only has 78 at-bats this year, but in that small sample, he has a 15.4% barrel rate. If he were a qualified hitter, that would rank in the top 90th percentile in MLB.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Slater has never been a huge home run guy, but facing a familiar lefty at a homer-friendly park has my attention.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The corner outfielder has a respectable .789 OPS vs. LHPs in his career.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>MLB home run picks made at 11:01 a.m. ET on 07\/02\/2025<\/em>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Wednesday&#8217;s MLB home run picks may not have a ton of brand recognition, but there is a +700 play on the menu. Today&#8217;s MLB HR narrative: Austin Slater might be an unlikely HR candidate, but there are some notable factors working in his favour tonight. Elsewhere, Cam Smith looks to continue an impressive power surge [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":355399,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[60],"tags":[10],"class_list":["post-355366","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb","tag-mlb-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>MLB home run picks July 2: Best bets, predictions &amp; odds | NSB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our best MLB home run picks for July 2, 2025. 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