{"id":355350,"date":"2025-07-01T15:26:09","date_gmt":"2025-07-01T19:26:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=355350"},"modified":"2025-07-01T15:26:09","modified_gmt":"2025-07-01T19:26:09","slug":"mlb-prop-bets-and-predictions-july-1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mlb-prop-bets-and-predictions-july-1\/","title":{"rendered":"Best MLB prop bets July 1: Fade Hernandez, look for Hancock to eat innings"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p id=\"block-6136ecc2-0cb3-4ab9-907f-141f56234f79\">After the Toronto Blue Jays&#8217; Canada Day game, there&#8217;s still plenty more MLB action on July 1.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-d0873b89-4dfa-47d6-9954-56140c451c77\"><strong>Today&#8217;s MLB props narrative<\/strong>: Emerson Hancock and the Mariners face a slumping Royals lineup tonight, which gives the right-hander a solid opportunity to give his team some length. On the hitting side, neither Teoscar Hernandez nor Willson Contreras is riding high into a new month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-d0873b89-4dfa-47d6-9954-56140c451c77\">Check out the best MLB prop bets for July 1.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"block-22b3784f-32c2-400a-beef-1578a991be49\">MLB prop bets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/sports\/baseball\/competitions\/10065\"><strong>Full MLB betting markets<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-injury-report\"><strong>MLB injury report<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/top-players\/hitting\/OPS-on-base_plus_slugging\"><strong>MLB player stats<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/standings\/division\"><strong>MLB standings<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-0c59b741-4781-48d8-8ffa-d93f8ee90c10\"><strong>Best bet: Hernandez under 0.5 runs (-143)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I really think the extra juice is worth it on this prop, as Hernandez&#8217;s productivity took a nosedive last month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Entering June, the ex-Blue Jay had a .298\/.324\/.556 slash line. He mostly batted in the Nos. 3 and 4 spots, so he was always right in the heart of the action for a loaded Los Angeles Dodgers lineup.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In June, Hernandez had a .189\/.243\/.347 slash line in 25 games. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He now bats fifth when a right-hander is on the mound, which is only a marginal difference, but it does slide him further out of run-scoring territory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>White Sox righty Shane Smith got roughed in his past two home outings, but he&#8217;s been solid on the road. In seven starts as a visitor, the rookie has a 2.55 ERA and an 8.9 K\/9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Smith has allowed a .649 OPS to right-hitting players this year, which is better than league average (.704).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This bet is more about fading Hernandez as a heart-of-the-order guy who&#8217;s scuffling at the plate. But from the pitching side, Smith is competent enough to hold up his end of the bargain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-13bf476e-3f27-4d52-86f2-70dff07fd638\"><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> Hernandez has gone under 0.5 runs in six straight games, as well as 14 of his past 22.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"block-ebade6eb-0e6a-4675-8cbc-3a4396c11ac4\">Best MLB picks<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Contreras under 0.5 hits (+115):<\/strong> Just past the halfway point of the MLB season, Paul Skenes is a -335 favourite to win NL Cy Young. He&#8217;s just that nasty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Contreras, who&#8217;s 0-for-7 with four strikeouts vs. Skenes, is well aware of this. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Skenes has held right-hitting players to a .158 BA this season, and I think Contreras is worth a fade at this plus-money price.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The St. Louis first baseman is 12-for-56 (.214) in his past 16 games, going hitless seven times in that span.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Contreras ranks in the bottom 30th percentile in chase rate and whiff rate, per Baseball Savant. I expect Skenes to have him guessing (and guessing wrong).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-310bddf4-d3c1-4fc6-8fe4-37281455da02\"><strong>Hancock over 16.5 outs (-130)<\/strong>: With an ice-cold opposing lineup and a taxed bullpen behind him, Hancock should be able to eat some innings tonight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Let&#8217;s start with the Royals&#8217; side of this, as Kansas City has gone into quite the rut on offence. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In their past nine games, the Royals are averaging 2.2 runs while posting a .199\/.263\/.289 slash line. No wonder they&#8217;re 1-8 in that span.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As for the Mariners, a slew of recent extra-innings games has pushed their relief corps to the limit. Three relievers have pitched in three of the past four days, while four others have pitched twice in that span.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Hancock&#8217;s 5.30 ERA in 14 outings looks bad. But a lot of the damage was concentrated in three rough starts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>All told, he&#8217;s allowed three or fewer runs in 11 of 14 starts \u2014 and he&#8217;s pitched into the sixth or later in 10 of 14. Under the circumstances, Seattle should be asking for 18-plus outs from him.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-571cf986-8d14-4776-b519-20fa27d04fec\"><em>MLB prop picks made at 3:11 p.m. ET on 07\/01\/2025<\/em>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>After the Toronto Blue Jays&#8217; Canada Day game, there&#8217;s still plenty more MLB action on July 1. Today&#8217;s MLB props narrative: Emerson Hancock and the Mariners face a slumping Royals lineup tonight, which gives the right-hander a solid opportunity to give his team some length. On the hitting side, neither Teoscar Hernandez nor Willson Contreras [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":355304,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[452,60],"tags":[10],"class_list":["post-355350","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-com","category-mlb","tag-mlb-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>MLB prop bets July 1: Picks, predictions &amp; odds | NorthStar Bets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our best MLB prop bets for July 1, 2025. 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