{"id":355314,"date":"2025-07-01T12:25:05","date_gmt":"2025-07-01T16:25:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=355314"},"modified":"2025-07-01T12:25:05","modified_gmt":"2025-07-01T16:25:05","slug":"mlb-home-run-picks-and-predictions-july-1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mlb-home-run-picks-and-predictions-july-1\/","title":{"rendered":"MLB home run picks July 1: Back Ketel Marte, Bryce Harper to go deep"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Bryce Harper and Ketel Marte headline Tuesday&#8217;s MLB home run picks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Today&#8217;s MLB HR narrative<\/strong>: Marte is swinging a red-hot bat and goes up against San Francisco&#8217;s Hayden Birdsong, who is struggling to keep the ball in the yard. Harper, meanwhile, has a favourable matchup in his second start since returning from the injured list.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Check out the best MLB home run picks for July 1.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">MLB home run picks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/sports\/baseball\/competitions\/10065\"><strong>Full MLB betting markets<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-injury-report\"><strong>MLB injury report<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/top-players\/hitting\/OPS-on-base_plus_slugging\"><strong>MLB player stats<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/standings\/division\"><strong>MLB standings<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Best bet: Marte to hit a home run (+350)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Marte is MLB&#8217;s best offensive second baseman right now, and it&#8217;s not particularly close. The 31-year-old leads all qualified hitters in the position group in:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Batting average (.300)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Slugging percentage (.592)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>fWAR (3.0)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>wRC+ (173)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">His 17 home runs are second to Tampa Bay&#8217;s Brandon Lowe, but mind you, Lowe has played 21 additional games.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And Marte has been on fire over his last 10 outings, batting .350 with five home runs and a 1.211 OPS, so I&#8217;m hoping he&#8217;ll catch Lowe tonight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Birdsong profiles as the type of pitcher who can help make that happen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The righty has a 6.38 ERA this month and has given up four home runs in his last three starts. Birdsong&#8217;s 46.7% hard hit rate ranks in the 11th percentile, per Baseball Savant, and his 37.1% ground ball rate ranks in the 23rd percentile.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Marte is 1-for-2 against Birdsong with a home run. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> The switch-hitting Marte is slugging .644 vs. RHP this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Best HR predictions<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Harper to hit a home run (+300)<\/strong>: Here&#8217;s hoping Harper&#8217;s injury problems are behind him.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The two-time MVP missed 22 games with right wrist inflammation and was reinstated last night, when he went 0-for-2 with a walk and a hit by pitch.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Is it difficult to get into a groove coming off the IL? Sure. But Harper did go deep against the Toronto Blue Jays on June 3 after missing a handful of games with an elbow contusion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And tonight, he has a solid matchup against San Diego&#8217;s Nick Pivetta.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Pivetta has given up nine home runs in his last 10 starts (1.467 HR\/9). <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The righty is a fly ball pitcher, generating a ground ball on just 32.6% of balls in play (ninth percentile).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Harper is 4-for-13 vs. Pivetta with two HRs.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Harper hasn&#8217;t produced at an electric clip just yet, but his .285 xBA (85th percentile) and .503 xSLG (81st percentile) indicate good things should be coming. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>MLB home run picks made at 9:51 a.m. ET on 07\/01\/2025<\/em>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bryce Harper and Ketel Marte headline Tuesday&#8217;s MLB home run picks. Today&#8217;s MLB HR narrative: Marte is swinging a red-hot bat and goes up against San Francisco&#8217;s Hayden Birdsong, who is struggling to keep the ball in the yard. Harper, meanwhile, has a favourable matchup in his second start since returning from the injured list. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":355286,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[452,60],"tags":[130],"class_list":["post-355314","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-com","category-mlb","tag-mlb"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>MLB home run picks July 1: Best bets, predictions &amp; odds | NSB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our best MLB home run picks for July 1, 2025. Baseball betting odds and predictions for Tuesday&#039;s MLB games.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mlb-home-run-picks-and-predictions-july-1\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"MLB home run picks July 1: Best bets, predictions &amp; odds | NSB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Check out our best MLB home run picks for July 1, 2025. Baseball betting odds and predictions for Tuesday&#039;s MLB games.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mlb-home-run-picks-and-predictions-july-1\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Boost\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-07-01T16:25:05+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/nsb-news.s3.ca-central-1.amazonaws.com\/imgs\/2025\/07\/Ketel-Marte-Bryce-Harper.webp\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1200\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"800\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/webp\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Avery Perri\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@AveryPerri\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Avery Perri\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mlb-home-run-picks-and-predictions-july-1\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mlb-home-run-picks-and-predictions-july-1\/\",\"name\":\"MLB home run picks July 1: Best bets, predictions & odds | NSB\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2025-07-01T16:25:05+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-07-01T16:25:05+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/#\/schema\/person\/fbc93da056637fd792d24b930d5cda31\"},\"description\":\"Check out our best MLB home run picks for July 1, 2025. Baseball betting odds and predictions for Tuesday's MLB games.\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-CA\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mlb-home-run-picks-and-predictions-july-1\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/\",\"name\":\"The Boost\",\"description\":\"\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-CA\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/#\/schema\/person\/fbc93da056637fd792d24b930d5cda31\",\"name\":\"Avery Perri\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-CA\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/nsb-news.s3.ca-central-1.amazonaws.com\/imgs\/2024\/11\/IMG_7771.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/nsb-news.s3.ca-central-1.amazonaws.com\/imgs\/2024\/11\/IMG_7771.jpg\",\"caption\":\"Avery Perri\"},\"description\":\"Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf \u2014 mainly because it\u2019s easier than actually playing \u2014 but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.\",\"sameAs\":[\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/home\",\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/AveryPerri\"],\"url\":\"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/author\/averyjperrigmail-com\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"MLB home run picks July 1: Best bets, predictions & odds | NSB","description":"Check out our best MLB home run picks for July 1, 2025. Baseball betting odds and predictions for Tuesday's MLB games.","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mlb-home-run-picks-and-predictions-july-1\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"MLB home run picks July 1: Best bets, predictions & odds | NSB","og_description":"Check out our best MLB home run picks for July 1, 2025. Baseball betting odds and predictions for Tuesday's MLB games.","og_url":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mlb-home-run-picks-and-predictions-july-1\/","og_site_name":"The Boost","article_published_time":"2025-07-01T16:25:05+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1200,"height":800,"url":"https:\/\/nsb-news.s3.ca-central-1.amazonaws.com\/imgs\/2025\/07\/Ketel-Marte-Bryce-Harper.webp","type":"image\/webp"}],"author":"Avery Perri","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@AveryPerri","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Avery Perri","Est. reading time":"3 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mlb-home-run-picks-and-predictions-july-1\/","url":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mlb-home-run-picks-and-predictions-july-1\/","name":"MLB home run picks July 1: Best bets, predictions & odds | NSB","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/#website"},"datePublished":"2025-07-01T16:25:05+00:00","dateModified":"2025-07-01T16:25:05+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/#\/schema\/person\/fbc93da056637fd792d24b930d5cda31"},"description":"Check out our best MLB home run picks for July 1, 2025. Baseball betting odds and predictions for Tuesday's MLB games.","inLanguage":"en-CA","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mlb-home-run-picks-and-predictions-july-1\/"]}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/#website","url":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/","name":"The Boost","description":"","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-CA"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/#\/schema\/person\/fbc93da056637fd792d24b930d5cda31","name":"Avery Perri","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-CA","@id":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/nsb-news.s3.ca-central-1.amazonaws.com\/imgs\/2024\/11\/IMG_7771.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/nsb-news.s3.ca-central-1.amazonaws.com\/imgs\/2024\/11\/IMG_7771.jpg","caption":"Avery Perri"},"description":"Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf \u2014 mainly because it\u2019s easier than actually playing \u2014 but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.","sameAs":["https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/home","https:\/\/twitter.com\/AveryPerri"],"url":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/author\/averyjperrigmail-com\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/355314","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=355314"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/355314\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":355319,"href":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/355314\/revisions\/355319"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/355286"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=355314"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=355314"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=355314"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}