{"id":355312,"date":"2025-07-01T12:24:37","date_gmt":"2025-07-01T16:24:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=355312"},"modified":"2025-07-01T12:24:38","modified_gmt":"2025-07-01T16:24:38","slug":"yankees-vs-blue-jays-best-bets-july-1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/yankees-vs-blue-jays-best-bets-july-1\/","title":{"rendered":"Yankees vs. Blue Jays Canada Day best bets: Take the over on Toronto&#8217;s team total, back Alejandro Kirk"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Toronto Blue Jays host the New York Yankees for a Canada Day matinee.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The pregame narrative:<\/strong> Toronto won the series opener, 5-4, and now sits just two games behind New York in a crowded AL East. The Yankees are favoured to win today behind southpaw Max Fried, who sports MLB&#8217;s second-best ERA (1.92), while Kevin Gausman starts for the Blue Jays.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Check out my Yankees vs. Blue Jays best bets for July 1, featuring Alejandro Kirk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Yankees vs. Blue Jays best bets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/sports\/baseball\/competitions\/10065\"><strong>Full MLB betting markets<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-injury-report\"><strong>MLB injury report<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/top-players\/hitting\/OPS-on-base_plus_slugging\"><strong>MLB player stats<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/standings\/division\"><strong>MLB standings<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Best bet: Blue Jays over 3.5 runs (+120)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Fading an arm like Fried is risky business, especially given the month he just had.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">New York&#8217;s southpaw logged five consecutive quality starts (6.0+ IP, three or fewer earned runs), and posted a 1.91 ERA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But I think Toronto is capable of doing some damage in front of a packed home crowd on Tuesday. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Blue Jays&#8217; season seemingly turned around with a four-game sweep of the Athletics at home from May 29 to June 2. These are their offensive ranks from then onward:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>1st in K rate (14.8%)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>2nd in batting average (.280)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>2nd in wRC+ (122)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>4th in OPS (.788)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And it&#8217;s not like Toronto is slowing down \u2014 it ranks inside the top 10 for K rate, batting average and wRC+ over the last two weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Fried&#8217;s 1.92 ERA and .204 opponent batting average are stellar, but his 3.30 xERA and .242 xBA indicate he&#8217;s been slightly lucky.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Ket stat:<\/strong> Toronto is averaging 5.71 runs across its last seven games, going 6-1 agianst this line.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Quick pick<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Kirk over 1.5 bases (+155):<\/strong> This seems like a great price for Kirk, who had a stellar June and crushes left-handed pitching.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Toronto&#8217;s catcher slashed .337\/.385\/.528 in June with five doubles and four home runs.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>He is batting .323 against LHPs this year and is 2-for-6 lifetime against Fried. In those at-bats, he has a .440 xBA and .741 xSLG.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Fried rarely issues free passes (4.9% walk rate, 93rd percentile) and Kirk seldom strikes out (9.8% K rate, 98th percentile). That means the ball should be put in play on the majority of his at-bats today, which is great for a bases prop.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Kirk ranks in the 98th percentile for hard-hit rate (55.9%), so I expect those balls to travel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Yankees vs. Blue Jays best bets made at 11:05 a.m. ET on 07\/01\/2025<\/em>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Toronto Blue Jays host the New York Yankees for a Canada Day matinee. The pregame narrative: Toronto won the series opener, 5-4, and now sits just two games behind New York in a crowded AL East. The Yankees are favoured to win today behind southpaw Max Fried, who sports MLB&#8217;s second-best ERA (1.92), while [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":355295,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[452,60],"tags":[130],"class_list":["post-355312","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-com","category-mlb","tag-mlb"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Yankees vs. Blue Jays best bets: Canada Day MLB picks | NSB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our Yankees vs. Blue Jays best bets for July 1, 2025. 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