{"id":355270,"date":"2025-07-01T09:35:52","date_gmt":"2025-07-01T13:35:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=355270"},"modified":"2025-07-01T11:04:56","modified_gmt":"2025-07-01T15:04:56","slug":"yankees-vs-blue-jays-picks-canada-day-july-1-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/yankees-vs-blue-jays-picks-canada-day-july-1-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Canada Day Yankees vs. Blue Jays prop picks: Bet on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to stay hot, fade Kevin Gausman"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>It&#8217;s Canada Day, and that means afternoon baseball for the Toronto Blue Jays in front of a jam-packed holiday crowd.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The pregame narrative: <\/strong>Max Fried (10-2, 1.92 ERA) faces <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/kevin_gausman\/pitching-stats\">Kevin Gausman<\/a> (6-6, 4.21 ERA) for the second time this season. In the first go-round, on April 27, the New York Yankees cruised to an 11-2 victory at home.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Check out my Yankees vs. Blue Jays picks for July 1, featuring Gausman, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/vladimir_guerrero_jr\/batting-stats\">Vladimir Guerrero Jr.<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/jazz_chisholm_jr\/batting-stats\">Jazz Chisholm Jr.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Yankees vs. Blue Jays picks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Best Bet: Chisholm over 1.5 total bases (+116)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Vibes were low for Chisholm at the end of April. He closed out the month batting .181 and hit the injured list with an oblique strain shortly thereafter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But since his return at the start of June, things have been different. And by that, I mean <em>much<\/em> better.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Chisholm has homered in four of his past five games. Here&#8217;s what the infielder accomplished throughout the past month:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>.318 BA<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>.614 SLG<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>7 HR<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>2.3 bases\/start<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>2+ bases in 14 of 23 starts<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Chisholm strikes out a lot, but when he puts wood on the ball, the contact is usually elite.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to Baseball Savant, he ranks in the 8th percentile in strikeout rate and the 95th percentile in barrel rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At 8.6 K\/9, Gausman isn&#8217;t having a dominant strikeout season on the mound (more on that later). Chisholm is wielding a platoon advantage and a hot bat, which is an excellent combo to buy in on.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The left-hitting Chisholm is slugging .577 against right-handed pitchers this season (compared to a .321 SLG vs. lefties).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> Chisholm is 10-4 vs. this prop in his past 14 games.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"cacheembed:115403\">Embed: #115403<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li class=\"insights\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/sports-hub\/baseball\/mlb?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=sportsbook_mlb\">Full MLB betting markets<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"insights\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-injury-report?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=injury_reports\">MLB injury report<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"insights\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/top-players\/hitting\/OPS-on-base_plus_slugging?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=stats_pages\">MLB stats &amp; standings<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Quick picks<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Gausman under 6.5 Ks (-129):<\/strong> New York has the sixth-highest strikeout rate in the past 30 days, which makes this under feel a twinge risky. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But Gausman just hasn&#8217;t been a reliable strikeout force this season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Under 6.5 Ks is 11-5 for Gausman this year. He&#8217;s averaging 5.6 Ks per outing.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Gausman has middling percentile rankings in whiff rate (57th percentile) and K rate (61st).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>The Yankees have also really had Gausman&#8217;s number lately. Since the start of the 2024 season, he has allowed 25 runs in five starts (11.50 ERA) and has gone under 6.5 Ks four times.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Gausman does rank in the 80th percentile in chase rate &#8230; but the Yankees&#8217; offence has the lowest chase rate in the majors (25.5%). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Guerrero over 1.5 total bases (+117):<\/strong> Guerrero went 0-for-3 against Fried earlier this year, but it&#8217;s difficult to back off this prop price for Toronto&#8217;s premier slugger right now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In his past 21 games, Guerrero is 14-7 vs. this prop while posting a .312\/.404\/.558 slash line. That includes a 2-for-4 effort with a double and three RBI last night.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Fried is certainly an upper-tier lefty, and that context matters, but Vladdy has been a great bet against southpaws as a whole this season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He ranks 12th among 161 qualified hitters in wRC+ vs. LHPs (174), which equates to a .982 OPS.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Blue Jays picks made at 9:30 a.m. ET on 07\/01\/2025.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>It&#8217;s Canada Day, and that means afternoon baseball for the Toronto Blue Jays in front of a jam-packed holiday crowd. The pregame narrative: Max Fried (10-2, 1.92 ERA) faces Kevin Gausman (6-6, 4.21 ERA) for the second time this season. In the first go-round, on April 27, the New York Yankees cruised to an 11-2 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":355277,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[60],"tags":[10],"class_list":["post-355270","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb","tag-mlb-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Blue Jays picks vs. Yankees: Canada Day MLB betting | NSB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our Yankees vs. Blue Jays picks for July 1, 2025. 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