{"id":355210,"date":"2025-06-30T12:14:42","date_gmt":"2025-06-30T16:14:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=355210"},"modified":"2025-06-30T12:14:42","modified_gmt":"2025-06-30T16:14:42","slug":"mlb-home-run-picks-and-predictions-june-30","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mlb-home-run-picks-and-predictions-june-30\/","title":{"rendered":"MLB home run picks June 30: Look for Yandy Diaz, Willson Contreras to go deep"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Yandy Diaz is playing out of this world right now, and he&#8217;s my top MLB home run prop pick for Monday night.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Today&#8217;s MLB HR narrative<\/strong>: Diaz often struggles to hit the ball into the air, but against a fly-ball pitcher tonight, he should be able to do some damage. Elsewhere, Willson Contreras looks to capitalize on a platoon advantage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Check out the best MLB home run picks for June 30.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">MLB home run picks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/sports\/baseball\/competitions\/10065\"><strong>Full MLB betting markets<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-injury-report\"><strong>MLB injury report<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/top-players\/hitting\/OPS-on-base_plus_slugging\"><strong>MLB player stats<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/standings\/division\"><strong>MLB standings<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Best bet: Diaz to hit a home run (+333)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>When it comes to generating hard contact, Diaz is in MLB&#8217;s elite tier. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In every season since 2022, Diaz has ranked in the 89th percentile or better in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate and xBA, per Baseball Savant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But his power numbers are often less explosive than you&#8217;d expect, given that Diaz hits a ton of grounders. His career average launch angle (5.1 degrees) is less than half of MLB&#8217;s average (12.4 degrees).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With that in mind, it might help Diaz to face a pitcher who serves up a lot of fly balls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Enter A&#8217;s starter Jacob Lopez, who has the lowest ground-ball rate in the league (20.2%) among 185  pitchers with 40-plus innings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ideally, Lopez&#8217;s tendencies as a fly-ball pitcher can counteract Diaz&#8217;s propensity to generate a low launch angle. Add in the power Diaz wields, and we have a nice recipe for a home run.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Plus, Monday&#8217;s game is being played at homer-friendly George M. Steinbrenner Field. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At the Rays&#8217; temporary home, right-hitting players are hitting 31% more HRs than average, per Baseball Savant&#8217;s park factors data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> Diaz has an otherworldly .449\/.511\/.718 slash line over his past 19 games, with five HRs in that span.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Best HR predictions<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Contreras to hit a home run (+295)<\/strong>: Contreras reached base and scored in all three weekend series games against the Guardians, continuing a strong run of production this month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In his past 25 games, the St. Louis catcher is slugging .527 with 14 extra-base hits (five HRs).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Contreras will face left-hander Andrew Heaney, who has coughed up nine homers in his past six starts (including three HRs last time out).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The platoon advantage is part of the draw for this pick, as Contreras has a .500 SLG and a .239 ISO vs. lefties this season. For context, the MLB average for ISO is .143.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>MLB home run picks made at 12:08 p.m. ET on 06\/30\/2025<\/em>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Yandy Diaz is playing out of this world right now, and he&#8217;s my top MLB home run prop pick for Monday night. Today&#8217;s MLB HR narrative: Diaz often struggles to hit the ball into the air, but against a fly-ball pitcher tonight, he should be able to do some damage. Elsewhere, Willson Contreras looks to [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":355199,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[452,60],"tags":[10],"class_list":["post-355210","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-com","category-mlb","tag-mlb-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>MLB home run picks June 30: Best bets, predictions &amp; odds | NSB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our best MLB home run picks for June 30, 2025. 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