{"id":354808,"date":"2025-06-27T12:48:54","date_gmt":"2025-06-27T16:48:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=354808"},"modified":"2025-06-27T13:40:43","modified_gmt":"2025-06-27T17:40:43","slug":"mlb-home-run-picks-and-predictions-june-27-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mlb-home-run-picks-and-predictions-june-27-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"MLB home run picks June 27: Back James Wood and Jackson Chourio to go yard on Friday"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Every MLB team is in action on Friday, and I&#8217;ve picked two players to go deep during the loaded slate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Today&#8217;s MLB HR narrative<\/strong>: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/james_wood\/batting-stats\">James Wood<\/a> has been a bright spot on a terrible Washington Nationals squad, and has a plus matchup against the hard-throwing Jose Soriano at Angels Stadium. I also expect <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/jackson_chourio\/batting-stats\">Jackson Chourio<\/a> to take advantage of the thin air at Coors Field. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Check out the best MLB home run picks for June 27.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">MLB home run picks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Best bet: Wood to hit a home run (+450)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Wood is sixth in MLB in home runs (22), destroys right-handed pitching, and goes up against a guy who gives up plenty of hard contact \u2014 yeah, that&#8217;ll play.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The 22-year-old is hitless in his last two outings but was on a five-game heater before that, batting .318 with four home runs. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Wood&#8217;s numbers against righties are incredible (.280\/.392\/.575 slash line, 15 HR), and Soriano&#8217;s advanced metrics suggest this is a perfect matchup:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>35th percentile xBA (.259)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>13th percentile hard-hit rate (46.5%)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>12th percentile average exit velocity (91.2).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Soriano&#8217;s main pitch is an upper-90s sinker, which he throws 51% of the time. And that is an offering Wood has seen well this season (stats vs. sinkers above 95 mph):<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>.338 xBA<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>.545 xSLG<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>45.5% hard-hit rate<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Swish Analytics also projects the wind to blow out the left field at Angel Stadium at just under 8 mph tonight, which is a nice boost.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> Wood has a 98th percentile xSLG this season (.593). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"cacheembed:115288\">Embed: #115288<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/sports-hub\/baseball\/mlb?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=sportsbook_mlb\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>Full MLB betting markets<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-injury-report?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=injury_reports\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>MLB injury report<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/top-players\/hitting\/OPS-on-base_plus_slugging?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=stats_pages\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>MLB stats &amp; standings<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Best HR predictions<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Chourio to hit a home run (+500)<\/strong>: Coors Field is a notorious hitter-friendly park, and the wind is blowing out to left-centre at over 10 mph on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">With that said, I&#8217;m <em>loving<\/em> Chourio&#8217;s +500 odds against an awful pitcher. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Kyle Freeland is projected to return tonight for the Colorado Rockies, and opponents have hit .387 against him at home. His 7.11 ERA at Coors Field is pretty poor, too. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The southpaw is also giving up a .494 SLG against righties, while Chourio is slugging an eye-popping .593 against lefties.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Chourio hit 21 home runs last year in a campaign which earned him third place on the NL ROTY ballot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">He also rarely takes walks, which means the ball should be put in play often and with authority.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>MLB home run picks made at 1:08 p.m. ET on 06\/27\/2025<\/em>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Every MLB team is in action on Friday, and I&#8217;ve picked two players to go deep during the loaded slate. Today&#8217;s MLB HR narrative: James Wood has been a bright spot on a terrible Washington Nationals squad, and has a plus matchup against the hard-throwing Jose Soriano at Angels Stadium. I also expect Jackson Chourio [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":354825,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[60],"tags":[130],"class_list":["post-354808","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb","tag-mlb"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>MLB home run picks June 27: Best bets, predictions &amp; odds | NSB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our best MLB home run picks for June 27, 2025. 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