{"id":354606,"date":"2025-06-25T15:41:39","date_gmt":"2025-06-25T19:41:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=354606"},"modified":"2025-06-25T15:41:39","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T19:41:39","slug":"mlb-home-run-picks-and-predictions-june-25","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mlb-home-run-picks-and-predictions-june-25\/","title":{"rendered":"MLB home run picks June 25: Best bets and predictions to go deep on Wednesday"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p id=\"block-6136ecc2-0cb3-4ab9-907f-141f56234f79\">Spencer Torkelson is having a quiet month, but he&#8217;s liable to break out at any moment with a left-handed pitcher on the mound.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-d0873b89-4dfa-47d6-9954-56140c451c77\"><strong>Today&#8217;s MLB HR narrative<\/strong>: Torkelson is tagging lefties at an elite rate, which is why he&#8217;s featured in Wednesday&#8217;s MLB home run picks. In Kansas City, the conditions are ripe for Yandy Diaz to go deep as he looks to extend a power-charged hit streak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-1fb8fd5d-1623-4b06-83cc-6471dee8b3c9\">Check out the best MLB home run picks for June 25, which also includes a prediction on Max Muncy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"block-22b3784f-32c2-400a-beef-1578a991be49\">MLB home run picks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/sports\/baseball\/competitions\/10065\"><strong>Full MLB betting markets<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-injury-report\"><strong>MLB injury report<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/top-players\/hitting\/OPS-on-base_plus_slugging\"><strong>MLB player stats<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/standings\/division\"><strong>MLB standings<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-0c59b741-4781-48d8-8ffa-d93f8ee90c10\"><strong>Best bet: Diaz to hit a home run (+450)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The wind is blowing out to left field tonight at Kauffman Stadium in the 10-to-12-mph range, per Swish Analytics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-310bddf4-d3c1-4fc6-8fe4-37281455da02\">That&#8217;s a good place to start when backing a right-hitting ballplayer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Diaz is known to mash the ball, though he doesn&#8217;t hit it in the air often enough. He owns a 55.3% hard-hit rate (98th percentile, per Baseball Savant), but his 4.8-degree launch angle is roughly a third of the league average (12.4 degrees).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With ample pop, though, Diaz is always capable of running into one. He&#8217;s proven that during an active 13-game hitting streak:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>.464 BA<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>.768 SLG<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>4 HRs<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>63% hard-hit rate<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Michael Wacha starts for the Royals tonight, and although he hasn&#8217;t allowed a ton of hard contact this year, I still view this as a solid matchup for Diaz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Wacha is a low-strikeout guy who doesn&#8217;t induce a lot of ground balls. His 40.1% ground ball rate ranks in the 40th percentile, per Baseball Savant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In his past five outings, Wacha has allowed multiple HRs three times.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-13bf476e-3f27-4d52-86f2-70dff07fd638\"><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> Diaz is 3-for-8 with a home run and a double vs. Wacha.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"block-ebade6eb-0e6a-4675-8cbc-3a4396c11ac4\">Best HR predictions<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-310bddf4-d3c1-4fc6-8fe4-37281455da02\"><strong>Muncy to hit a home run (+320)<\/strong>: I tried with Muncy yesterday, and he didn&#8217;t come through. He did finish 2-for-5 with a pair of 300-plus-feet balls in play, though.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That extended a superb offensive stretch for Muncy dating back to May 27. Since then, he has a .693 SLG and a 214 wRC+, with eight HRs in 21 games.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Rockies rookie Chase Dollander has really been feeling the effects of Denver&#8217;s altitude so far. The right-hander has allowed eight home runs and a .626 SLG in just 20.2 innings at Coors Field.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Among 135 pitchers with 50-plus innings, Dollander has the second-worst HR\/9 (2.22). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-310bddf4-d3c1-4fc6-8fe4-37281455da02\"><strong>Torkelson to hit a home run (+300)<\/strong>: Torkelson is homer-less in his past nine games, which isn&#8217;t a significant stretch. But it&#8217;s his longest drought of the season, and I say he&#8217;s due for another long ball.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The former No. 1 overall pick is on a 32-homer pace, which would be his career best.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Torkelson is slugging .595 vs. left-handed pitchers, and his seven homers against LHPs are tied for the sixth-most in MLB.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>A&#8217;s lefty Jacob Lopez throws a combination of four-seam fastballs, changeups and sliders to right-hitting players more than 75% of the time. Torkelson has tattooed all of those offerings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Facing four-seamers, changeups and sliders from LHPs this year, Torkelson has a combined .284\/.376\/.619 slash line.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-571cf986-8d14-4776-b519-20fa27d04fec\"><em>MLB home run picks made at 3:38 p.m. ET on 06\/25\/2025<\/em>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Spencer Torkelson is having a quiet month, but he&#8217;s liable to break out at any moment with a left-handed pitcher on the mound. Today&#8217;s MLB HR narrative: Torkelson is tagging lefties at an elite rate, which is why he&#8217;s featured in Wednesday&#8217;s MLB home run picks. In Kansas City, the conditions are ripe for Yandy [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":354560,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[452,60],"tags":[10],"class_list":["post-354606","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-com","category-mlb","tag-mlb-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>MLB home run picks June 25: Best bets, predictions &amp; odds | NSB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our best MLB home run picks for June 25, 2025. 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